Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T06:04:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc9de…81d9
weather · 218 markets active 1h ago
4.5score
+$417 +25%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$326 · open +$15
avoidriskycopy
~ RISKY weather specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$72
Realized+$326
Unrealized+$15
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses153 / 55
Open positions10
Markets (closed)208 / 218
History coverage36d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day23.3
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 10 History 208 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$23
7 days+$36
14 days+$121
30 days+$204
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 82-83°F on June 13? Yes 23¢ 100¢ $10 $45 +$35 (+330%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? Yes 18¢ 23¢ $13 $16 +$4 (+28%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? Yes 20¢ 27¢ $3 $4 +$1 (+35%)
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? Yes 5¢ 12¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+140%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be 86°F or higher on June 13? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-95%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Yes 18¢ 0¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 78-79°F on June 13? Yes 9¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-99%)
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on May 29? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $13 $0 −$13 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 5? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 12°C on May 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 43°C on May 24? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 62-63°F on May 24? Yes 23¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 32°C on June 5? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on May 19? Yes 8¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 26°C on May 22? Yes 12¢ 0¢ $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 11°C on May 12? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C on May 17? Yes 19¢ 0¢ $12 $0 −$12 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on May 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 33°C or higher on June 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C or higher on May 19? Yes 5¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 5? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 5? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? Jun 14 $9 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $13 +$4 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? Jun 13 $2 $0 -5%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? Jun 13 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? Jun 13 $9 −$1 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? Jun 13 $3 $0 +8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 70-71°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 88-89°F on June 14? Jun 13 $2 +$1 +32%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 86-87°F on June 14? Jun 13 $7 $0 +5%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 14? Jun 13 $22 +$2 +11%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 +$6 +120%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $16 +$2 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +25%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 72-73°F on Ju Jun 11 $2 −$1 -53%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju Jun 11 $8 −$1 -8%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 11 $13 +$3 +22%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$3 +58%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 11 $3 +$1 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 29°C on June 12? Jun 10 $6 +$1 +22%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 37°C or higher on June 12? Jun 10 $3 +$1 +16%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 11? Jun 10 $14 +$1 +8%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 $0 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 31°C on June 11? Jun 09 $1 $0 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 92-93°F on June 10? Jun 09 $1 $0 +44%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 29°C on June 10? Jun 08 $3 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 10? Jun 08 $7 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 10? Jun 08 $0 $0 +140%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 10? Jun 08 $6 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 27°C on June 9? Jun 07 $6 $0 -8%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 60-61°F on June 8? Jun 07 $18 +$2 +13%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 8? Jun 07 $4 +$2 +50%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 8? Jun 07 $2 $0 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 30°C on June 7? Jun 06 $8 +$3 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 86-87°F on June 7? Jun 06 $4 +$2 +53%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 7? Jun 06 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 64-65°F on Ju Jun 06 $1 $0 +65%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 56-57°F on June 6? Jun 06 $22 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on June 5? Jun 05 $6 +$20 +323%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 54-55°F on June 6? Jun 05 $15 +$1 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 58-59°F on June 6? Jun 05 $27 +$6 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 27°C on June 5? Jun 05 $0 $0 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 6? Jun 05 $4 +$5 +132%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 25°C on June 6? Jun 05 $0 $0 +288%
Will the highest temperature in Wellington be 19°C on June 5? Jun 04 $2 $0 -7%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 100% +$341
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 16? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $17 1h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 16? BUY Yes 5¢ $0 1h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 16? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 1h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? SELL Yes 14¢ $1 2h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 80-81°F on June 15? BUY Yes 14¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? SELL No 58¢ $6 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY Yes 22¢ $8 4h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY Yes 18¢ $13 4h
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 53¢ $5 4h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? SELL Yes 34¢ $8 11h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 29°C on June 15? SELL Yes 45¢ $4 11h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 32°C on June 15? SELL Yes 29¢ $7 17h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? SELL Yes 26¢ $6 17h
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 76-77°F on June 13? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 21h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 31°C on June 15? SELL Yes 25¢ $1 23h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 15? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 24h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? SELL Yes 37¢ $4 25h
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 33°C on June 15? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +65%
net ROI/market (all)+13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 37 +22.9% +11.2% 73% 59% +4.5%
≤30d 165 +24.1% +12.3% 72% 64% +5.8%
≤90d 208 +25.5% +13.6% 74% 65% +9.6%
all 208 +25.5% +13.6% 74% 65% +9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover23.3 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +13.6% 65% +9.6%
10% ← realistic here +2.7% 51% -0.9%
15% -7.2% 39% -10.5%
20% -16.3% 27% -19.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $72.15 · official $72.15 (match) · 842 history records