Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T10:46:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9d6…1d57 other 236 markets active 0h ago coverage 127d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$67 (-0%) realized −$67 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate7%16W / 219L
Whale WR6%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$211per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$52now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$15
14 days−$28
30 days−$38
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$38
sports 18% −$14
politics 9% −$7
culture 8% −$7
economics 6% −$2
crypto 6% −$6
world 5% −$1
tech 1% −$1
finance 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 69 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤90d 175 -0.2% -9.7% 3% 0% -9.7%
all 235 -0.2% -9.7% 7% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.7% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 56% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 6% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.5 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×1.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

127d coverage
Net worth$52
Realized−$67
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)7%
Wins / losses16 / 219
Whale WR (big bets)6%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)235 / 236
History coverage127d
Avg bet$211
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 235 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 99¢ 99¢ $52 $52 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 17 $192 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 17 $363 −$1 -0%
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 17 $376 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? Jun 16 $613 −$1 -0%
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? Jun 16 $108 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $331 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 16 $529 −$1 -0%
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 16 $446 −$1 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $296 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 15 $415 −$1 -0%
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 15 $109 $0 -0%
Will Recep Tayyip Erdoğan win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 15 $256 $0 -0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 14 $197 $0 -0%
Will Real Salt Lake win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $231 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $346 −$1 -0%
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $392 −$1 -0%
Will Philadelphia Union win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 14 $263 −$1 -0%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 13 $114 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 13 $271 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 13 $144 $0 -0%
Will Edmundo González be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 12 $359 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 12 $447 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Texans win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 12 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 11 $810 −$2 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 10 $191 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Guardians win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $56 $0 -0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2026 World Series? Jun 09 $586 −$2 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $277 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 09 $57 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $275 −$1 -0%
Xi Jinping out by June 30? Jun 08 $183 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $400 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 08 $181 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $218 $0 -0%
Will Julian Assange win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 07 $260 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $231 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Red Sox win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $776 −$2 -0%
Will the Cincinnati Reds win the 2026 World Series? Jun 07 $605 −$1 -0%
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $498 −$1 -0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 06 $490 −$1 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Jun 06 $96 $0 -0%
Will the New York Giants win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 05 $251 −$1 -0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 05 $244 −$1 -0%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 04 $196 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 04 $434 −$1 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 04 $373 $0 -0%
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 03 $126 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 16m
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 1h
Will there be no head of state of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 3h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 7h
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 8h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 10h
Will Ronaldo Caiado win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $52 11h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 99¢ $17 11h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? SELL No 100¢ $35 13h
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair? BUY No 100¢ $52 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $52 16h
Will the Pittsburgh Pirates win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $52 18h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 19h
Will Mohammed bin Salman win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 20h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 22h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $52 23h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $52 25h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $52 26h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 32h
Will Charlie Kirk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 34h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $52 35h
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 37h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 40h
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 41h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $53 47h
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $53 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Kansas City Royals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $53 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 97¢ $53 2d
Will the Denver Broncos win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 97¢ $53 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51.52 · official $51.52 (match) · 1309 history records