Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:58:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc9d5…d1bb sports 273 markets active 1h ago coverage 239d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$1,133 (+7%) realized +$1,571 · open −$438
Gross ROI / mkt +15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +0% what you keep after slip
Net edge+0%after slip
Net WR23%break-even
Win rate30%75W / 179L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$55per market
Trades / day6.1pace
Fees−$147est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$991now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$168
7 days−$168
14 days−$452
30 days+$1,177
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$770
world 26% +$2,481
other 15% −$576
politics 3% −$107
crypto 2% −$86
finance 2% −$71
tech 1% −$7
economics 0% −$7
weather 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +23%
net ROI/market (all)+4.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -31.4% -37.9% 33% 0% -35.8%
≤30d 90 -6.5% -15.4% 20% 11% +20.0%
≤90d 233 +10.1% -0.3% 27% 20% -2.0%
all 254 +15.2% +4.2% 30% 23% -1.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.2% 23% -1.1%
10% -5.8% 20% -10.5%
15% -14.9% 18% -19.2%
20% -23.2% 17% -27.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 23% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +9% → late +21% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$26 · ×3.02 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.28 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

239d coverage
Net worth$991
Realized+$1,571
Unrealized−$438
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses75 / 179
Est. fees paid−$147
Open positions18
Markets (closed)254 / 273
History coverage239d
Avg bet$55
Trades / day6.1
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 18 History 254 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $260 $268 +$7 (+3%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $269 $172 −$97 (-36%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $200 $130 −$70 (-35%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $85 $112 +$28 (+32%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? Yes $56 $44 −$12 (-21%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ $135 $42 −$93 (-69%)
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Yes $115 $38 −$76 (-67%)
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Yes $26 $35 +$9 (+34%)
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? No 12¢ 16¢ $24 $33 +$9 (+38%)
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $32 +$4 (+12%)
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? No 13¢ 16¢ $20 $26 +$5 (+26%)
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $30 $15 −$15 (-50%)
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $40 $10 −$30 (-75%)
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $15 $8 −$8 (-50%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $45 $8 −$38 (-83%)
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $29 $6 −$22 (-78%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Yes 10¢ $39 $5 −$34 (-86%)
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $10 $5 −$5 (-50%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $371 −$162 -44%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $28 −$16 -56%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $180 +$9 +5%
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $8 −$2 -20%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? Jun 15 $36 −$13 -36%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 15 $28 −$4 -14%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $69 −$3 -5%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $45 −$33 -73%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $35 −$8 -21%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 13 $88 −$50 -58%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $140 by end of June? Jun 11 $33 −$19 -58%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 11 $165 −$47 -29%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $61 +$15 +24%
Israel closes its airspace by June 11? Jun 11 $18 −$16 -90%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $14 −$8 -56%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 11 $17 −$16 -97%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 9? Jun 10 $0 $0 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 09 $6 +$11 +188%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 09 $57 −$8 -14%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $97 −$79 -81%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $32 −$3 -11%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $43 −$2 -4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $3 −$1 -33%
Iran closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 06 $75 −$45 -60%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $65 +$11 +16%
Will voter turnout be between 55% and 60% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 04 $12 −$4 -32%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $110 −$110 -100%
Will voter turnout be between 60% and 65% in the 2026 Seoul mayoral el Jun 03 $2 −$1 -40%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $81 −$15 -18%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Jun 02 $11 −$3 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $150 by end of June? Jun 01 $23 −$8 -34%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? May 31 $41 −$24 -58%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by June 30? May 31 $8 +$8 +106%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $38 +$3 +8%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 18°C on May 31? May 30 $1 −$1 -96%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $11 −$4 -31%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 30 $65 +$187 +288%
Iran closes its airspace by May 27? May 30 $29 $0 -2%
Israeli forces cross the Litani River again by May 31? May 30 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Russia capture all of Hryshyne by May 31? May 29 $12 −$12 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? May 29 $156 −$63 -40%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 28 $1 $0 -17%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $8 +$1 +6%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? May 28 $24 +$1 +4%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 28? May 28 $62 +$4 +7%
LoL: Kiwoom DRX vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $11 $0 -2%
LoL: DN SOOPers vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winner May 28 $35 −$35 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $49 1h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $13 3h
Will New Zealand vs. Egypt end in a draw? AND Will Jordan vs. Algeria BUY $21 3h
Starmer out by June 23, 2026? BUY No 12¢ $25 3h
Starmer out by June 24, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $21 3h
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $160 3h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $40 26h
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $28 26h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $10 29h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $0 30h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $189 40h
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $9 7d
Naim Qassem out as Hezbollah’s secretary-general by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes $6 7d
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by June 30? SELL Yes $23 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 12¢ $24 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $1 7d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $25 7d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes $16 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 17¢ $60 7d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes $6 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? SELL Yes $2 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $0 8d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 10¢ $7 8d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes $24 8d
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $46 9d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes $2 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes $5 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $6 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $2 9d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes $15 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $990.84 · official $990.94 (match) · 1654 history records