Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T04:18:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9ca…bb58 world 6 markets active 1h ago coverage 13d
RISKYcopy with care world specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$77 (-5%) realized −$77 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate33%2W / 4L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day1.2pace
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 13d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$84
world 48% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-23.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -2.1% -11.5% 25% 0% -11.6%
≤30d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 17% -14.3%
≤90d 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 17% -14.3%
all 6 -15.7% -23.7% 33% 17% -14.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.7% 17% -14.3%
10% -31.0% 0% -22.5%
15% -37.7% 0% -30.0%
20% -43.8% 0% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 76% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% too few recent
Fragile wins
50% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$28 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.1 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

13d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$77
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses2 / 4
Open positions0
Markets (closed)6 / 6
History coverage13d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day1.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 6 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? Jun 27 $317 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 27 $315 +$2 +1%
Maduro guilty of all counts? Jun 26 $345 −$31 -9%
Will US annex any territory in 2026? Jun 26 $347 −$1 -0%
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? Jun 14 $53 −$53 -100%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? Jun 14 $47 +$7 +14%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $317 44m
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by December 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $317 57m
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $285 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? SELL No 92¢ $31 1h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $315 1h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 82¢ $18 21h
Maduro guilty of all counts? SELL No 82¢ $296 21h
Maduro guilty of all counts? BUY No 90¢ $345 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $20 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $325 22h
Will US annex any territory in 2026? BUY No 92¢ $347 23h
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 12d
Game 1: Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor? BUY Yes 8¢ $26 12d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $54 12d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $23 13d
Foreign intervention in Gaza by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $24 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 16 history records