Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T22:32:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9c7…4e5b sports 356 markets active 0h ago coverage 58d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
Total PnL +$2,879 (+7%) realized +$3,696 · open +$51
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR28%break-even
Win rate38%129W / 214L
Whale WR37%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$120per market
Trades / day53.8pace
Fees−$100est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$824now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$373
7 days+$812
14 days+$3,793
30 days+$3,810
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 23% +$313
other 23% +$1,330
sports 17% +$202
world 15% −$998
tech 13% +$99
crypto 6% +$3,042
economics 2% −$299
finance 1% +$39
weather 0% +$2
culture 0% +$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +28%
net ROI/market (all)-12.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 45 +16.4% +5.3% 42% 31% -3.7%
≤30d 170 -1.3% -10.7% 41% 35% +1.9%
≤90d 343 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 28% -1.5%
all 343 -2.7% -12.0% 38% 28% -1.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover53.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.0% 28% -1.5%
10% ← realistic here -20.4% 24% -10.9%
15% -28.1% 22% -19.5%
20% -35.1% 18% -27.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt +9% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 37% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
7.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$61 vs −$20 · ×3.04 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$824
Realized+$3,696
Unrealized+$51
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses129 / 214
Whale WR (big bets)37%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions4
Markets (closed)343 / 356
History coverage58d
Avg bet$120
Trades / day53.8
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 343 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Yes 72¢ 76¢ $500 $527 +$27 (+5%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? Yes 54¢ 60¢ $107 $121 +$14 (+13%)
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? Yes 66¢ 67¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? Yes 65¢ 74¢ $65 $74 +$10 (+15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $100 −$1 -1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $100 +$69 +69%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 14 $200 +$16 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $250 +$132 +53%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$27 +134%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $346 +$41 +12%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 13 $15 −$3 -17%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 Jun 13 $25 +$36 +141%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 AND United States vs. Paraguay: O/ Jun 13 $15 +$28 +181%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $50 +$28 +55%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? Jun 12 $1,991 −$21 -1%
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on Jun 12 $273 +$207 +76%
Will SpaceX’s opening share price on its first day of trading be betwe Jun 12 $202 +$48 +24%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.2T? Jun 12 $144 −$58 -40%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $25 +$18 +72%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND W Jun 11 $26 +$38 +149%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $800 +$140 +18%
Another Trump political opponent federally charged by May 31? Jun 10 $801 −$29 -4%
Will Pamela Evette win the 2026 South Carolina Governor Republican pri Jun 10 $891 −$34 -4%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 10 $18 −$1 -6%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2T? Jun 10 $1,017 −$28 -3%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $218 −$66 -30%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $304 −$13 -4%
Will the next Claude Mythos model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut Jun 10 $979 −$38 -4%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 10 $1,211 +$19 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $4 −$4 -100%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $796 +$316 +40%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $11 −$2 -19%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $14 −$2 -13%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $20 −$1 -6%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $28 −$2 -9%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $46 −$3 -8%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $70 −$6 -8%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $104 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $217 −$13 -6%
Will MicroStrategy announce holding 1M+ BTC by December 31, 2026?-bV81 Jun 09 $104 −$26 -25%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $18 +$12 +71%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 09 $429 +$1 +0%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 10, 2026? Jun 09 $15 −$1 -4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $46 −$22 -46%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $85 −$9 -10%
Stuttgart Open: Tommy Paul vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard Jun 08 $30 $0 -2%
Will Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros end in a draw? Jun 08 $300 +$16 +5%
MicroStrategy announces >1000 BTC purchase June 2-8? Jun 08 $100 +$6 +6%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 08 $53 −$4 -7%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $3 −$1 -25%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 06 $101 −$5 -5%
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" be the May film with the highest domest Jun 06 $81 −$21 -26%
Will Karen Bass & Spencer Pratt advance to the second round of the 202 Jun 06 $377 +$101 +27%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 05 $21 −$21 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 72¢ $500 5m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 56¢ $99 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 71¢ $169 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? SELL Yes 94¢ $216 1h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 81¢ $177 1h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 41¢ $91 1h
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 7h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 56¢ $100 9h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $100 9h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $50 11h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 12h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? AND Wi BUY 16¢ $31 15h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? AND Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? AN BUY 37¢ $20 15h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by July 1? BUY Yes 65¢ $66 24h
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22? BUY Yes 54¢ $109 24h
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 2.5 AND Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY 30¢ $20 24h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 65¢ $197 28h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? SELL Yes 64¢ $205 29h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? BUY Yes 87¢ $200 29h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 66¢ $200 29h
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $20 32h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $22 32h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 55¢ $100 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? SELL Yes 1¢ $12 33h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? BUY Yes 36¢ $50 37h
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 2.5 AND Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 BUY 18¢ $20 39h
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? BUY Yes 1¢ $15 39h
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.8T? SELL Yes 100¢ $251 2d
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on SELL Yes 100¢ $480 2d
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 AND Will United States win on 2026 BUY 41¢ $25 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $823.63 · official $898.63 · 3500 history records