Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T13:56:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9c7…5d81 other 47 markets active 1h ago coverage 92d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$399 (-6%) realized −$399 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -41% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -48% what you keep after slip
Net edge-48%after slip
Net WR20%break-even
Win rate34%22W / 42L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$131per market
Trades / day3.3pace
Fees−$52est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$144
7 days−$144
14 days−$113
30 days−$213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 51% −$309
sports 35% −$22
politics 8% $0
crypto 3% −$139
finance 2% +$3
weather 1% −$9
tech 0% −$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +20%
net ROI/market (all)-46.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 -97.2% -97.4% 0% 0% -80.6%
≤30d 28 -72.3% -75.0% 11% 7% -32.4%
≤90d 63 -42.1% -47.6% 33% 19% -17.0%
all 64 -40.8% -46.4% 34% 20% -16.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -46.4% 20% -16.9%
10% -51.5% 16% -24.8%
15% -56.2% 9% -32.1%
20% -60.5% 5% -38.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 46% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
41% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -41% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -69% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
4.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$32 vs −$28 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

92d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$399
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses22 / 42
Est. fees paid−$52
Open positions0
Markets (closed)64 / 47
History coverage92d
Avg bet$131
Trades / day3.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 64 Trades
no open positions (26 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 540-559 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 460-479 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 580+ tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 380-399 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 440-459 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 120-139 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 560-579 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 520-539 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 400-419 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 420-439 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Jun 28 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 28 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 28 $53 −$41 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 28 $79 −$51 -65%
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova Jun 21 $293 −$43 -15%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 21? Jun 21 $4 −$1 -32%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 27°C on June 21? Jun 21 $22 $0 -0%
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun Jun 19 $34 −$7 -21%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 0.5 AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $101 +$43 +43%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 1.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $101 +$39 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 12 $5 $0 +5%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $102 −$100 -98%
Spread: Spurs (-11.5) May 28 $2 −$2 -99%
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) May 24 $61 −$60 -99%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 24 $489 $0 -0%
Kashima Antlers vs. FC Tōkyō: O/U 3.5 May 23 $44 +$6 +13%
Spurs vs. Thunder: O/U 210.5 May 19 $22 +$8 +35%
Will Trump say "AI" or "Artificial Intelligence" during events with Xi May 14 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 07 $3 $0 -2%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026? May 02 $2 $0 +16%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026? Apr 23 $4 $0 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $274 −$214 -78%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $84 −$75 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 12 $480 −$260 -54%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026? Apr 11 $130 −$50 -38%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $223 +$118 +53%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 10 $38 +$11 +28%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $132 −$24 -19%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 09 $500 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $1 $0 +6%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $228 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 3 to April 10, 2026? Apr 09 $5 −$5 -93%
Hornets vs. Celtics Apr 08 $502 +$8 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET BUY Down 43¢ $21 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 22¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 32¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 15¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET SELL Up 9¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET BUY Up 33¢ $26 1h
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 18¢ $30 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 20¢ $4 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 26¢ $61 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 40¢ $20 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $2 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $6 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $1 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $3 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $3 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $2 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $3 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 31¢ $8 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 31¢ $60 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova BUY Solana Sierra 25¢ $51 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 54¢ $59 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 54¢ $0 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 54¢ $5 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 54¢ $27 7d
Bad Homburg Open, Qualification: Solana Sierra vs Anna Blinkova SELL Solana Sierra 54¢ $16 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 338 history records