Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:16:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9c4…4080 sports 85 markets active 6d ago coverage 18d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$204 (-3%) realized −$204 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -34% what you keep after slip
Net edge-34%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate24%20W / 65L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$94per market
Trades / day49.6pace
Fees−$166est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$31
14 days−$33
30 days−$430
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 73% −$198
culture 13% −$93
world 5% −$39
other 4% −$29
weather 2% −$7
finance 1% −$36
crypto 1% −$23
politics 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -52.3% -56.9% 0% 0% -74.0%
≤30d 85 -14.0% -22.2% 24% 13% -14.4%
≤90d 85 -14.0% -22.2% 24% 13% -14.4%
all 85 -14.0% -22.2% 24% 13% -14.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover49.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -22.2% 13% -14.4%
10% ← realistic here -29.6% 11% -22.6%
15% -36.4% 9% -30.0%
20% -42.7% 4% -36.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 45% · top 2 56% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late -16% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
9.0 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$11 · ×1.3 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.4 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

18d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$204
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses20 / 65
Est. fees paid−$166
Open positions0
Markets (closed)85 / 85
History coverage18d
Avg bet$94
Trades / day49.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 85 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? Jun 11 $15 −$12 -82%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$1 -21%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 11 $17 −$17 -100%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $6 $0 -6%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff Jun 05 $2 −$2 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $4 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 28 $5 $0 -7%
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pl May 28 $4 −$2 -41%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? May 28 $101 −$3 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? May 28 $3 −$1 -34%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? May 28 $69 −$8 -12%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie May 28 $4 −$1 -15%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $2 −$2 -83%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs Hanwha Life Esports (+1.5) May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 1 Winner May 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Nemiga (BO3) - ESL Challenger League Europe Fin May 28 $56 +$20 +36%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance - Map 2 Winner May 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $8 −$8 -100%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Dota 2: GLYPH vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Eternal Fire vs fnatic (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pla May 28 $3 +$12 +441%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 28 $108 −$50 -46%
Dota 2: PARIVISION vs Team Yandex (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $346 +$31 +9%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $318 +$1 +0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $177 −$5 -3%
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 27? May 27 $73 −$7 -10%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner May 27 $14 +$18 +129%
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Kiwoom DRX (BO3) - LCK Rounds 1-2 May 27 $10 +$1 +8%
LoL: BIG vs G2 NORD (BO5) - Prime League 1st Division Playoffs May 27 $34 −$11 -32%
Dota 2: Xtreme Gaming vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $12 −$3 -27%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs NIP (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs May 27 $10 +$5 +48%
Counter-Strike: FaZe vs Alliance (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playof May 27 $5 −$1 -26%
Game Handicap: BFX (-1.5) vs Kiwoom DRX (+1.5) May 27 $5 +$3 +52%
Dota 2: LGD Gaming vs Team Spirit (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 27 $10 −$3 -26%
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? May 27 $10 −$1 -6%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $37 −$3 -7%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 27 $772 +$10 +1%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $1,365 −$146 -11%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 27 $19 −$1 -4%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $61 −$16 -26%
Will the Montreal Canadiens win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $15 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the Eastern Conference? May 27 $124 −$3 -2%
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 27 $220 +$11 +5%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $1,159 −$65 -6%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 25 to May 27, 2026? May 27 $20 +$7 +33%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $40 −$10 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? May 27 $39 +$3 +7%
Will Crystal Palace FC vs. Rayo Vallecano de Madrid end in a draw? May 27 $5 +$2 +40%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 27 $66 −$3 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? SELL Yes $3 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? SELL Yes 33¢ $4 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 45¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 13? BUY Yes 46¢ $5 5d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy $0 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy $0 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy $1 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy $0 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 12¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 43¢ $5 5d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 60¢ $5 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 5d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 16¢ $5 6d
Counter-Strike: 9z vs Heroic (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 2 Playoffs SELL Heroic 24¢ $4 19d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 22 to May 29, 2026? SELL Yes 39¢ $5 19d
Counter-Strike: Tricked vs Just Players (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Pl SELL Tricked 36¢ $2 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 7? SELL No 39¢ $3 19d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? SELL Down 19¢ $2 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL No 83¢ $6 19d
Counter-Strike: illwill vs fnatic (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Serie SELL illwill 30¢ $3 19d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs Tundra Esports (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Tundra Esports $0 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? SELL Yes 19¢ $6 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY No 75¢ $5 19d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 29? BUY Yes 17¢ $5 19d
SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 28? BUY Down 27¢ $3 19d
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CIS LAN Championship Playoff BUY K27 $2 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 921 history records