Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc9c0…8d4c sports 83 markets active 2h ago coverage 162d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$28,536 (-16%) realized −$28,662 · open +$126
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate59%46W / 32L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2,177per market
Trades / day2.1pace
Fees−$1,338est.
Kalshi-fit73%portable
Net worth$426now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$820
7 days−$3,715
14 days−$815
30 days−$9,624
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$28,788
other 26% −$327
crypto 4% +$789
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)-4.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 36 +25.5% +13.6% 58% 58% -16.7%
≤30d 51 +14.0% +3.1% 57% 55% -22.1%
≤90d 64 +7.1% -3.1% 55% 52% -27.8%
all 78 +6.0% -4.1% 59% 53% -23.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.1 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.1% 53% -23.9%
10% ← realistic here -13.3% 44% -31.2%
15% -21.6% 33% -37.8%
20% -29.3% 24% -43.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -20% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$2,392) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -17% → late +29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.3 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$937 vs −$2,236 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.6 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

162d coverage
Net worth$426
Realized−$28,662
Unrealized+$126
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses46 / 32
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$1,338
Open positions1
Markets (closed)78 / 83
History coverage162d
Avg bet$2,177
Trades / day2.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit73%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 68¢ 97¢ $300 $426 +$126 (+42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3,086 +$1,060 +34%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $1,055 +$765 +72%
Spread: England (-1.5) Jun 27 $1,373 +$253 +18%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $975 −$960 -98%
New Zealand vs. Belgium: O/U 4.5 Jun 27 $3,022 −$3,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $1,762 +$383 +22%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 26 $911 +$584 +64%
Will France win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $911 +$589 +65%
Cabo Verde vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 2.5 Jun 26 $1,025 −$30 -3%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 26 $475 −$465 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $965 −$950 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $448 −$441 -98%
Morocco vs. Haiti: O/U 2.5 AND South Africa vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3. Jun 25 $205 +$1,000 +488%
Spread: Korea Republic (-1.5) AND Spread: Brazil (-1.5) AND Will Switz Jun 25 $31 +$176 +572%
Czechia vs. Mexico: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $806 −$525 -65%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 25 $776 +$724 +93%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $1,074 +$426 +40%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Joanna Garland vs Tyra Caterina Grant Jun 24 $241 +$58 +24%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $626 −$37 -6%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $970 +$265 +27%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $1,000 +$500 +50%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 23 $440 +$560 +127%
Dota 2: REKONIX vs Grind Back (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Jun 23 $1,251 +$823 +66%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,274 −$548 -43%
Norway vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 23 $203 +$148 +73%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $1,342 +$1,442 +107%
Spread: France (-3.5) Jun 22 $535 −$525 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $1,373 −$1,373 -100%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $955 +$1,045 +109%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $8,007 +$2,714 +34%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $202 +$70 +34%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof Jun 21 $728 −$650 -89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1,741 −$1,725 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $6,011 −$5,736 -95%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $573 +$98 +17%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $512 −$433 -84%
Pittsburgh Pirates vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 21 $3,095 +$2,002 +65%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $881 +$619 +70%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $567 +$433 +76%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $935 −$50 -5%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,234 +$766 +62%
Dota 2: Team Nemesis vs Amaru Gaming (BO3) - The International South A Jun 19 $870 −$870 -100%
Will Georgia win on 2026-06-02? Jun 02 $457 −$450 -98%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 02 $7,107 −$7,100 -100%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Jun 01 $2,907 +$1,271 +44%
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Team WE - Game 2 Winner Jun 01 $1,027 −$1,018 -99%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports (BO5) - LPL Playoffs May 31 $383 +$15 +4%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 4 Winner May 31 $505 −$402 -80%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winner May 31 $507 +$183 +36%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Top Esports - Game 1 Winner May 31 $1,012 +$218 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 68¢ $303 2h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 58¢ $1,145 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 97¢ $485 4h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $366 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $24 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 93¢ $74 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 91¢ $455 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 90¢ $900 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $18 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $108 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $8 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $18 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $99 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $9 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $21 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $4 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $15 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $10 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $1 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $20 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 83¢ $3 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 89¢ $76 5h
Spread: England (-1.5) SELL England 89¢ $11 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $425.96 · official $425.96 (match) · 395 history records