Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T17:17:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9bf…8ec8 sports 1022 markets active 0h ago coverage 90d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$3,127 (+8%) realized +$3,039 · open +$88
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate50%494W / 503L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$41per market
Trades / day20.5pace
Fees−$553est.
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$1,191now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,096
7 days+$290
14 days−$421
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 96% +$2,732
other 4% +$269
crypto 0% −$23
world 0% −$10
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -2.2% -11.5% 35% 34% -6.0%
≤30d 388 -22.6% -30.0% 38% 38% -9.5%
≤90d 997 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 48% -3.1%
all 997 -2.4% -11.7% 50% 48% -3.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.7% 48% -3.1%
10% ← realistic here -20.1% 47% -12.3%
15% -27.8% 42% -20.8%
20% -34.9% 33% -28.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
2% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$26 · ×1.24 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

90d coverage
Net worth$1,191
Realized+$3,039
Unrealized+$88
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses494 / 503
Est. fees paid−$553
Open positions14
Markets (closed)997 / 1022
History coverage90d
Avg bet$41
Trades / day20.5
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 14 History 997 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Over 71¢ 72¢ $400 $409 +$8 (+2%)
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Yes 51¢ 76¢ $201 $301 +$100 (+50%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? Yes 12¢ 22¢ $41 $76 +$36 (+88%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $60 $65 +$5 (+8%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 32¢ 28¢ $64 $55 −$9 (-14%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 8¢ $39 $51 +$12 (+30%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs 9z 44¢ 44¢ $50 $49 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 11¢ 12¢ $40 $46 +$5 (+14%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 46¢ 38¢ $46 $38 −$9 (-19%)
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $40 $37 −$3 (-8%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+17%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 14¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$1 (-4%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $15 $14 −$2 (-10%)
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BetBoom Team 40¢ 0¢ $60 $0 −$60 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 18 $204 +$190 +93%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Jun 18 $5 +$57 +1116%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $609 +$641 +105%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Dodgers: O/U 8.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 1 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 3 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $62 −$62 -100%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $61 +$46 +74%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $21 +$229 +1116%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $31 +$73 +240%
Spread: Athletics (-1.5) Jun 17 $30 +$22 +73%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 AND Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$37 +244%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $71 +$1 +2%
Map Handicap: NAVI (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 16 $31 −$31 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 1 - 3 Uruguay? Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 16 $101 −$101 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 AND Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $15 +$46 +301%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $102 −$102 -100%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $204 +$149 +73%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $62 +$73 +119%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $277 +$205 +74%
Map Handicap: MGLZ (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $41 −$41 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $406 +$94 +23%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $84 +$81 +97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $101 +$49 +48%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $50 +$120 +238%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs 9z (+1.5) Jun 14 $104 −$104 -100%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $31 −$31 -100%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $103 −$103 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-6.5) Jun 14 $111 +$89 +79%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Aurora Gaming (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 −$20 -100%
Map Handicap: FUT (-1.5) vs B8 (+1.5) Jun 13 $41 −$41 -100%
Map Handicap: VIT (-1.5) vs MOUZ (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FAL (-1.5) vs Monte (+1.5) Jun 13 $51 −$51 -100%
Map Handicap: FURIA (-1.5) vs BetBoom Team (+1.5) Jun 13 $20 +$35 +172%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $51 +$56 +110%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $71 +$136 +190%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 13 $542 −$129 -24%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 3 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
LoL: Gen.G vs KT Rolster - Game 1 Winner Jun 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs BUY 9z 44¢ $51 4m
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? SELL Yes 5¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $42 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $36 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 12¢ $42 1h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 51¢ $204 1h
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 71¢ $404 1h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner BUY BetBoom Team 40¢ $61 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end BUY 9¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 2 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 14¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 15¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: Czechia 3 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 6¢ $5 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Will Czechia win o BUY 29¢ $20 3h
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner BUY Aurora Gaming 51¢ $204 3h
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 AND Mexico vs. Korea R BUY 25¢ $20 3h
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 AND BUY 23¢ $31 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 20h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 1 BUY 3¢ $5 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 SELL 43¢ $107 22h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $31 23h
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY 24¢ $31 24h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 2 Colombia? AND Exact Score: England 3 - 1 BUY 2¢ $5 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,191.10 · official $1,234.68 · 2848 history records