Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T17:40:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9be…d284 world 37 markets active 0h ago coverage 303d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$8 (-1%) realized −$8 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 72% −$1
politics 12% −$8
other 11% $0
sports 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-14.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +0.2% -9.3% 33% 0% -9.2%
≤30d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 15 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 37 -5.1% -14.2% 30% 3% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.2% 3% -10.4%
10% -22.4% 0% -19.0%
15% -29.9% 0% -26.8%
20% -36.8% 0% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 59% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -6% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.32 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

303d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$8
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage303d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 24 $33 $0 +0%
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? Jun 23 $64 $0 +1%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $29 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 17 $81 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $29 $0 -1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $31 +$2 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 14 $58 −$2 -3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $57 $0 +1%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 10 $50 −$1 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $29 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by December 31? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $59 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 05 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 04 $30 $0 -0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Dec 27 $15 $0 +3%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 17 $13 $0 +3%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 05 $2 $0 +15%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Nov 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Andrew Cuomo win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 16 $2 $0 -0%
Will Vlad Gheorghe be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 15 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Sep 14 $9 $0 -1%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 13 $1 $0 -3%
Will Solana dip to $150 in September? Sep 13 $11 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 12 $11 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $1 $0 -2%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Sep 11 $11 $0 -1%
Will Achraf Hakimi win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 27 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 26 $6 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman in August? Aug 26 $22 $0 -0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 26 $11 $0 -1%
Will 8+ Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Aug 26 $13 $0 -0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Aug 25 $22 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 25 $24 $0 +0%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2025 US Open? Aug 25 $3 $0 -3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 91¢ $33 8m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $33 1h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $29 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $4 26h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 81¢ $32 29h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 84¢ $29 37h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $29 39h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 84¢ $0 39h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $32 41h
Israeli parliament dissolved by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $32 41h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $32 7d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $29 8d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $29 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $14 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 42¢ $4 8d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 42¢ $18 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 88¢ $33 9d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 83¢ $31 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 44¢ $14 10d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 45¢ $29 10d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $3 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 80¢ $26 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 79¢ $28 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $6 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $2 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $20 11d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 78¢ $28 11d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 52¢ $3 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 120 history records