Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:07:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc9bd…4ce9 other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 6d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$82 (+3%) realized +$82 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate62%10W / 6L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$203per market
Trades / day8.4pace
Fees−$16est.
Kalshi-fit38%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 68% −$289
sports 27% +$378
crypto 4% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-2.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 56% -5.8%
≤30d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 56% -5.8%
≤90d 16 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 56% -5.8%
all 16 +8.3% -2.0% 62% 56% -5.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -2.0% 56% -5.8%
10% -11.4% 50% -14.8%
15% -19.9% 44% -23.1%
20% -27.8% 31% -30.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 47% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +8% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +8% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$73 vs −$105 · ×0.69 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$82
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses10 / 6
Est. fees paid−$16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)16 / 16
History coverage6d
Avg bet$203
Trades / day8.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit38%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 16 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 +$91 +90%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $131 −$35 -27%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $140 +$70 +50%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $133 +$10 +7%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $52 −$33 -64%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $41 +$27 +65%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $226 −$60 -26%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $139 +$62 +45%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $196 +$44 +22%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $300 −$53 -18%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $127 +$72 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $253 +$128 +51%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $405 +$214 +53%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $857 −$400 -47%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 95¢ $56 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 66¢ $77 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 29¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 55¢ $30 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $51 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $80 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 3h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $112 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 89¢ $100 15h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $140 18h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 27h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 93¢ $133 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $17 28h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 17¢ $51 28h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 60¢ $41 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 87¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 88¢ $99 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL No 13¢ $25 2d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 51¢ $101 2d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 81¢ $88 3d
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 54¢ $51 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 42¢ $51 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 76¢ $145 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 21¢ $30 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 59 history records