Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T10:44:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9bc…dad9 other 59 markets active 4h ago coverage 304d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$1 (+0%) realized +$1 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate39%23W / 36L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$32per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit63%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 48% −$1
other 31% $0
politics 8% +$3
sports 5% $0
crypto 4% +$1
culture 2% $0
tech 2% $0
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-10.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.5%
≤30d 17 +3.1% -6.7% 35% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 18 +3.7% -6.2% 39% 11% -9.4%
all 59 -0.6% -10.1% 39% 3% -9.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.1% 3% -9.5%
10% -18.7% 2% -18.1%
15% -26.5% 2% -26.0%
20% -33.7% 2% -33.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 50% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.72 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.11 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

304d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses23 / 36
Open positions0
Markets (closed)59 / 59
History coverage304d
Avg bet$32
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit63%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 59 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 19 $66 $0 +0%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 19 $51 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $62 $0 +0%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $15 $0 +0%
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $17 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 17 $40 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $54 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 +$1 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $274 −$3 -1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $133 +$1 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 05 $14 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 05 $7 $0 -5%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 05 $37 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 02 $33 −$2 -5%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 31 $7 +$4 +67%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 30 $89 +$1 +1%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 28 $65 −$4 -7%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Mar 25 $23 +$3 +14%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $22 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bad Bunny be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Nov 25 $19 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $23 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $49 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $21 $0 +0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 23 $12 $0 -1%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 22 $21 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 21 $17 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 21 $21 $0 +0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Nov 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 19 $10 −$3 -34%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $32 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 18 $2 $0 -17%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Nov 18 $1 −$1 -62%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Nov 18 $27 $0 +2%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 17 $11 $0 +0%
Will UP hold the most seats in the Chamber of Deputies following the 2 Oct 24 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90k in October? Oct 24 $37 $0 +1%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $8 $0 +1%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 23 $39 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Oct 23 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 23 $1 $0 -1%
Will Keir Starmer be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $7 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 22 $43 $0 +0%
Will the Houston Texans win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $36 $0 +0%
Will the Cincinnati Bengals win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Jon Stewart win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $26 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 82¢ $39 3h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $39 5h
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 82¢ $26 5h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $51 9h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $29 11h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $22 11h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $62 14h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $62 20h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $4 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes $5 22h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes $15 25h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 15¢ $13 28h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 30h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 90¢ $40 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $27 41h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 90¢ $14 41h
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $23 11d
Will Alberta join the US? SELL No 96¢ $31 11d
Will Alberta join the US? BUY No 96¢ $54 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 54¢ $32 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $12 12d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 53¢ $24 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $19 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $45 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $65 12d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 81¢ $20 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 250 history records