Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:54:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b8…a380 sports 31 markets active 3d ago coverage 233d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$279 (-32%) realized −$279 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR13%break-even
Win rate65%20W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$28per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$138
14 days−$138
30 days−$138
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% −$155
other 18% −$129
crypto 12% +$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +13%
net ROI/market (all)-25.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +28.6% +16.4% 50% 50% -45.8%
≤30d 2 +28.6% +16.4% 50% 50% -45.8%
≤90d 3 -14.3% -22.4% 33% 33% -50.0%
all 31 -18.1% -25.9% 65% 13% -38.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.9% 13% -38.2%
10% -33.0% 13% -44.1%
15% -39.5% 6% -49.5%
20% -45.4% 6% -54.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -45% too few recent
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -18% · $-wt -32% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -39% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$45 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.45 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

233d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$279
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses20 / 11
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions0
Markets (closed)31 / 31
History coverage233d
Avg bet$28
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 31 Trades
no open positions (7 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $266 −$265 -100%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Jun 11 $80 +$127 +157%
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Apr 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? Feb 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 09 $79 −$61 -77%
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? Feb 08 $50 −$50 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Muller Oct 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Chennai Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti Oct 29 $25 −$15 -60%
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot Oct 29 $15 −$15 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie Oct 29 $7 −$7 -100%
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud Oct 29 $15 −$7 -50%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 29 $44 +$74 +168%
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers Oct 28 $13 −$8 -62%
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) Oct 28 $42 +$10 +24%
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn Oct 27 $8 $0 +4%
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? Oct 27 $8 $0 +5%
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Sebastian Korda Oct 27 $8 $0 +4%
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Yexin Ma Oct 27 $22 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 26, 7PM ET Oct 26 $7 $0 +5%
Boston College vs. Louisville Oct 26 $9 $0 +2%
Dodgers vs. Blue Jays Oct 26 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 9PM ET Oct 26 $7 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 7PM ET Oct 26 $10 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3PM ET Oct 25 $9 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1PM ET Oct 25 $24 +$5 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 4AM ET Oct 25 $9 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 3AM ET Oct 25 $13 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 25, 1AM ET Oct 25 $8 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 10PM ET Oct 25 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 8PM ET Oct 25 $7 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - October 24, 6PM ET Oct 24 $7 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 88¢ $266 3d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? SELL Yes 100¢ $207 5d
Will Nikita Kucherov win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 39¢ $80 74d
Will Macklin Celebrini win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? BUY Yes 14¢ $29 74d
Will the Gatorade shower at Super Bowl LX be orange? BUY Yes 5¢ $18 128d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? SELL Yes 10¢ $18 128d
Will Drake Maye win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 27¢ $50 129d
Will Sam Darnold win the Super Bowl LX MVP? BUY Yes 44¢ $79 129d
Rolex Paris Masters: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Alexandre Muller BUY Muller 60¢ $20 231d
Chennai Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti SELL Kawa 14¢ $5 231d
Chennai Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Kawa 28¢ $10 231d
Rolex Paris Masters: Arthur Rinderknech vs Valentin Vacherot BUY Rinderknech 60¢ $15 231d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud SELL Ruud 38¢ $8 231d
Chennai Open: Katarzyna Kawa vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Bronzetti 68¢ $15 231d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud BUY Ruud 70¢ $5 231d
Rolex Paris Masters: Daniel Altmaier vs Casper Ruud BUY Ruud 79¢ $10 231d
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers SELL Blue Jays 95¢ $118 231d
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers BUY Blue Jays 35¢ $44 232d
Rolex Paris Masters: Carlos Alcaraz vs Cameron Norrie BUY Alcaraz 95¢ $7 232d
LoL: Gen.G vs Hanwha Life Esports (BO5) BUY Gen.G 81¢ $42 232d
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers SELL Dodgers 100¢ $5 232d
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers BUY Dodgers 60¢ $3 232d
Blue Jays vs. Dodgers BUY Blue Jays 46¢ $10 232d
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn SELL Khachanov 91¢ $9 233d
Rolex Paris Masters: Karen Khachanov vs Ethan Quinn BUY Khachanov 87¢ $8 233d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? SELL Yes 100¢ $8 233d
Will Fenerbahçe SK win on 2025-10-27? BUY Yes 95¢ $8 233d
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Sebastian Korda SELL Sonego 98¢ $8 233d
Rolex Paris Masters: Lorenzo Sonego vs Sebastian Korda BUY Sonego 94¢ $8 233d
Prudential Hong Kong Tennis Open: Cristina Bucsa vs Yexin Ma SELL Bucsa 99¢ $15 233d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 67 history records