trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? | Jun 04 | $54,576 | +$224 | +0% |
| Will 0 world records be broken at the 2026 Enhanced Games? | May 25 | $94 | −$94 | -100% |
| Will the Indian National Congress (INC) win the most seats in the 2026 | May 05 | $177 | +$9 | +5% |
| Will the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) win the most seats in the 2026 W | May 05 | $24,508 | −$4,967 | -20% |
| Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the | May 04 | $114 | +$50 | +44% |
| Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam | May 04 | $9,917 | +$99 | +1% |
| US x Iran ceasefire extended by April 22, 2026? | May 01 | $19,800 | +$200 | +1% |
| Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | Apr 28 | $40,000 | $0 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? | Apr 09 | $28,443 | +$57 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? | Apr 09 | $24,900 | +$25 | +0% |
| US forces enter Iran by April 30? | Apr 08 | $55,687 | +$257 | +0% |
| US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? | Apr 08 | $24,925 | +$75 | +0% |
| Backpack FDV above $200M one day after launch? | Mar 24 | $100 | −$8 | -8% |
| Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 15 | $564 | +$4,010 | +711% |
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 m | Mar 14 | $1,000 | +$655 | +66% |
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | no closed markets | |||||
| ≤30d | 2 | -49.8% | -54.6% | 50% | 0% | -9.3% |
| ≤90d | 15 | +46.7% | +32.7% | 73% | 20% | -9.3% |
| all | 15 | +46.7% | +32.7% | 73% | 20% | -9.3% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal | +32.7% | 20% | -9.3% |
| 10% | +20.0% | 20% | -18.0% |
| 15% ← realistic here | +8.4% | 20% | -25.9% |
| 20% | -2.2% | 13% | -33.2% |