Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T14:42:24+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc9b5…b29c politics 136 markets active 2h ago coverage 123d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$70 (-0%) realized −$70 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate10%14W / 121L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$218per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$1
30 days−$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 47% −$15
politics 38% −$15
sports 8% −$44
economics 2% −$1
tech 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -0.2% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 99 +0.5% -9.1% 4% 2% -9.6%
all 135 +1.0% -8.6% 10% 8% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 8% -9.8%
10% -17.3% 7% -18.4%
15% -25.3% 4% -26.3%
20% -32.6% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +2% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$11 vs −$2 · ×5.78 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.67 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

123d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized−$70
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses14 / 121
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)135 / 136
History coverage123d
Avg bet$218
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 135 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $26 $0 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $31 $0 -0%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $39 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $224 $0 -0%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 19 $22 $0 -0%
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 18 $268 $0 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $25 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 11 $39 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $37 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $257 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 08 $42 $0 -0%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? Jun 07 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $29 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $29 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 30 $189 $0 -0%
Will Jamie Dimon win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 28 $403 −$1 -0%
Will Roy Cooper win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $177 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 27 $463 −$1 -0%
Will Mark Cuban win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $181 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 24 $425 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $243 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 23 $211 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 22 $256 $0 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $251 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 20 $203 $0 -0%
Will Tom Brady win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 18 $188 $0 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? May 17 $695 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 15 $189 $0 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $219 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $250 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 13 $217 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 13 $933 −$1 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 11 $457 −$1 -0%
Will Marjorie Taylor Greene win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin May 11 $253 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 10 $453 −$1 -0%
Will Cho Eun-hee win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election May 10 $178 $0 -0%
Will Germán Vargas Lleras win the 2026 Colombian presidential election May 09 $458 −$1 -0%
Will John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $252 $0 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 06 $253 $0 -0%
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 05 $218 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 04 $245 $0 -0%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? May 03 $260 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $686 −$1 -0%
Will Aldo Rebelo win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $214 $0 -0%
Will Moldova win Eurovision 2026? May 03 $190 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $210 $0 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 01 $186 $0 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 01 $263 $0 -0%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $252 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $26 1h
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $26 5h
Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $32 3d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $31 5d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $39 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $28 6d
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $28 7d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $22 8d
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $22 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 8d
Will Frank Donovan be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $25 12d
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $25 13d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $39 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $37 17d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $37 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $36 18d
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $36 18d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $42 19d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $42 19d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 99¢ $21 19d
Will the Arizona Cardinals win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 99¢ $21 19d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $29 21d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $29 27d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $29 27d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $189 28d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.05 · official $32.05 (match) · 377 history records