Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:32:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9b2…ee45 world 70 markets active 2h ago coverage 490d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -4% what you keep after slip
Net edge-4%after slip
Net WR7%break-even
Win rate29%20W / 49L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$38per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$4
14 days+$4
30 days+$4
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% −$2
politics 24% −$1
other 20% +$3
sports 15% −$11
economics 1% $0
finance 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +7%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +2.1% -7.6% 50% 0% -7.4%
≤30d 20 +1.0% -8.7% 35% 5% -8.9%
≤90d 68 +7.4% -2.8% 29% 7% -9.5%
all 69 +5.8% -4.3% 29% 7% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.3% 7% -9.9%
10% -13.4% 6% -18.6%
15% -21.8% 4% -26.4%
20% -29.4% 4% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 28% · top 2 47% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +11% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.66 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.5 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

490d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses20 / 49
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)69 / 70
History coverage490d
Avg bet$38
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 69 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? No 94¢ 94¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $42 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 21 $17 $0 +2%
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 20 $22 +$2 +8%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $32 −$1 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 18 $9 $0 +0%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $52 +$3 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 11 $28 +$1 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 10 $29 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $6 −$1 -25%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $91 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 06 $29 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $29 $0 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 05 $57 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 01 $51 −$2 -4%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 28 $35 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 27 $7 +$2 +31%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 27 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 25 $30 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $7 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $30 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 23 $18 −$2 -13%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 19 $34 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 18 $31 $0 -1%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? May 18 $31 $0 -0%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 17 $64 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $31 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 16 $35 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $34 $0 +0%
Greece x Turkey military engagement by June 30? May 15 $51 $0 -0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 27 $2 $0 +4%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $32 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 26 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $67 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $34 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $65 −$1 -1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by April 30? Apr 21 $36 −$1 -3%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 20 $2 +$1 +62%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 14 $73 $0 -0%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by December 31? Apr 14 $32 $0 +0%
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $65 $0 +0%
Will Joao Fonseca win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 14 $65 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $2 $0 -4%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 12 $25 $0 -0%
Will James Talarico win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $105 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 10 $67 $0 -0%
Will San Jose Earthquakes win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 10 $37 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 09 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 09 $37 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 08 $150 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $8 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $28 1h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $36 1h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 49¢ $17 45h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $17 47h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $6 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 2d
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 25¢ $20 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $1 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $29 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $20 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 66¢ $11 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $7 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 27¢ $9 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $21 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 75¢ $11 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 68¢ $29 4d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 31¢ $23 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $8 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 31¢ $14 5d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL No 85¢ $29 11d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $28 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $28 12d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $29 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 9¢ $1 13d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 9¢ $3 13d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.75 · official $0.00 · 271 history records