Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T15:52:54+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
C9 0xc9b1…9888 sports 24 markets active 2h ago coverage 132d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$37 (+3%) realized +$39 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -18% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate43%10W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$13
7 days−$13
14 days+$65
30 days+$74
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 95% +$56
world 2% −$13
politics 1% −$1
other 1% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-25.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -10.0% -18.6% 0% 0% -18.6%
≤30d 5 +39.0% +25.7% 80% 80% +13.2%
≤90d 6 +15.8% +4.8% 67% 67% +12.8%
all 23 -17.5% -25.3% 43% 30% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -25.3% 30% -6.3%
10% -32.5% 22% -15.3%
15% -39.0% 17% -23.5%
20% -45.0% 13% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 53% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +25% too few recent
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +3% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -26% → late -9% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$17 vs −$10 · ×1.61 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.24 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

132d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$39
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses10 / 13
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions1
Markets (closed)23 / 24
History coverage132d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 23 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger Jun 27 $130 −$13 -10%
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom Jun 19 $56 +$44 +79%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 15 $31 +$14 +46%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 14 $32 +$20 +61%
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $45 +$9 +19%
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5 Mar 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Netanyahu out by March 31? Mar 24 $14 −$11 -78%
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili Poljicak Mar 15 $30 −$30 -100%
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast Mar 14 $30 $0 +1%
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers Mar 11 $14 +$3 +17%
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner Mar 08 $42 +$32 +75%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Mar 06 $51 −$51 -100%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $4 −$1 -15%
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 04 $13 +$1 +6%
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? Mar 04 $3 −$3 -100%
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage Mar 03 $102 −$3 -3%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 27 $4 −$4 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 1, 2026? Feb 27 $6 −$6 -100%
O/U 0.5 Rounds Feb 27 $23 $0 -1%
Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica: O/U 1.5 Feb 27 $202 +$45 +22%
Will Maricarmen Alva be the next President of Peru? Feb 19 $13 +$1 +6%
Dubai Duty Free Tennis Championships: Barbora Krejcikova vs Amanda Ani Feb 16 $113 −$2 -2%
Sonego vs. Berrettini: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Feb 16 $277 −$11 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger SELL Misa Esports 50¢ $117 1h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 54¢ $28 39h
Counter-Strike: Misa Esports vs Wampirki (BO3) - CCT Europe Challenger BUY Misa Esports 54¢ $101 40h
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom SELL FORZE Esports 100¢ $100 7d
Mobile Legends Bang Bang: FORZE Esports vs Cyber Hero (BO5) - BetBoom BUY FORZE Esports 55¢ $56 8d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Under 74¢ $53 17d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 61¢ $32 17d
United States vs. Paraguay: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Under 61¢ $45 17d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY No 68¢ $31 17d
Will Ricardo Belmont win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? BUY Yes $2 85d
Kyle Kuzma: Points O/U 11.5 BUY Yes $1 89d
Netanyahu out by March 31? SELL Yes $3 94d
Netanyahu out by March 31? BUY Yes $14 102d
Zadar: Stefano Travaglia vs Mili Poljicak BUY Mili Poljicak 46¢ $30 104d
Dota 2: Yangon Galacticos vs Ivory (BO3) - EPL World Series Southeast BUY Ivory 50¢ $30 106d
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers SELL Trail Blazers 81¢ $17 108d
Hornets vs. Trail Blazers BUY Trail Blazers 69¢ $14 108d
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner SELL Boston Breach 100¢ $74 111d
O/U 0.5 Rounds BUY Over 79¢ $51 113d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 114d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 52¢ $14 114d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 14¢ $4 114d
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 49¢ $13 114d
Will Iran strike Israel on March 4? BUY No 38¢ $3 114d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage BUY Keyd 52¢ $46 116d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage SELL Players 49¢ $45 116d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage BUY Players 50¢ $46 116d
Call of Duty: Cloud9 New York vs Boston Breach - Game 2 Winner BUY Boston Breach 57¢ $42 116d
Counter-Strike: Keyd vs Players (BO3) - BetBoom Storm Group Stage BUY Keyd 51¢ $10 116d
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? BUY No 83¢ $4 119d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $0.02 (match) · 47 history records