Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:18:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9ad…fe73 other 116 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate27%26W / 69L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day19.6pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit34%portable
Net worth$93now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$78
7 days−$11
14 days−$11
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 63% −$12
sports 26% −$19
world 9% +$17
crypto 2% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-20.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 95 -12.3% -20.6% 27% 26% -10.6%
≤30d 95 -12.3% -20.6% 27% 26% -10.6%
≤90d 95 -12.3% -20.6% 27% 26% -10.6%
all 95 -12.3% -20.6% 27% 26% -10.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover19.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -20.6% 26% -10.6%
10% -28.2% 25% -19.1%
15% -35.2% 24% -26.9%
20% -41.5% 23% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 32% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -12% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$8 · ×2.6 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$93
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses26 / 69
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions10
Markets (closed)95 / 116
History coverage7d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day19.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit34%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 95 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-3%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-5%)
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? Yes 7¢ 6¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $5 $7 +$2 (+31%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 13¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+18%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 7¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-22%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+264%)
Will Harry Kane be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 15¢ 20¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+30%)
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 10¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 52 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $30 +$61 +202%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? Jun 18 $33 +$39 +121%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 18 $21 −$15 -75%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -98%
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 17 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $26 −$25 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 17 $15 −$15 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $63 +$117 +184%
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 +$2 +19%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 17 $12 −$2 -19%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $10 +$37 +365%
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $22 +$17 +76%
Exact Score: England 1 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: England 3 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $7 −$7 -97%
Exact Score: England 0 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 2 Croatia? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $10 +$14 +134%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $30 −$27 -90%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: England 2 - 0 Croatia? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 17 $8 −$8 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $14 +$8 +55%
Exact Score: Austria 3 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -98%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 17 $5 +$5 +93%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$63 +618%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 17 $5 +$6 +119%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 16 $20 −$16 -77%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 7.5 Corners Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Exact Score: France 3 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 +$20 +982%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: France 1 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Argentina vs. Algeria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 2 New Zealand? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $4 −$4 -98%
Egypt leading at halftime? Jun 15 $5 +$3 +60%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $6 −$6 -98%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 11¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 1 - 3 Colombia? BUY Yes 7¢ $21 1h
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? BUY Yes 15¢ $31 1h
Luis Díaz: 1+ goals AND Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Colombia O/U 1.5 AND BUY 18¢ $26 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 94¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 80¢ $72 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 19¢ $15 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 30¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 20¢ $20 2h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? SELL Yes 16¢ $19 2h
Ghana vs. Panama: Panama 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 39¢ $51 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 30¢ $26 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 0 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 6¢ $10 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 0 Panama? BUY Yes 12¢ $15 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 3h
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 3h
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AN BUY 13¢ $10 3h
Antoine Semenyo: 1+ goals AND Ghana vs. Panama: Ghana 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY 31¢ $5 3h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? SELL Yes 32¢ $12 4h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? SELL Yes 10¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 34¢ $33 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? BUY Yes 12¢ $12 5h
Exact Score: England 3 - 2 Croatia? BUY Yes 26¢ $10 5h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 35¢ $31 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Over 100¢ $48 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $38 5h
England vs. Croatia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $22 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $92.82 · official $117.82 · 172 history records