Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T08:24:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
C9 0xc9ad…79d0 other 329 markets active 1d ago coverage 215d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 215d only
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! high turnover
Total PnL +$26,734 (+9%) realized +$25,686 · open +$1,048
Gross ROI / mkt +14% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate78%230W / 66L
Whale WR88%big bets
Drawdown9%max
Avg bet$862per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$20,610now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$46
7 days+$1,247
14 days−$119
30 days+$2,198
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 38% +$4,404
politics 28% +$4,711
world 21% +$4,902
economics 5% +$363
culture 5% +$467
sports 2% +$1,227
crypto 2% +$1,004
tech 0% +$120
finance 0% +$137
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)+2.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +23.3% +11.6% 100% 57% +4.3%
≤30d 49 -12.7% -21.0% 67% 33% -3.3%
≤90d 77 +1.6% -8.0% 78% 35% -1.6%
all 296 +13.6% +2.8% 78% 36% -3.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.8% 36% -3.8%
10% ← realistic here -7.0% 21% -13.0%
15% -16.0% 17% -21.4%
20% -24.2% 12% -29.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +9% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
52% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +14% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 88% (≥$942) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +25% → late +3% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
6.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$103 vs −$113 · ×0.91 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.17 per $1 lost it wins $3.17
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

215d coverage
Net worth$20,610
Realized+$25,686
Unrealized+$1,048
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses230 / 66
Whale WR (big bets)88%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions33
Markets (closed)296 / 329
History coverage215d ⚠
Avg bet$862
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown9%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 33 History 296 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 88¢ 99¢ $2,635 $2,962 +$328 (+12%)
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? No 78¢ 90¢ $2,483 $2,896 +$413 (+17%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $2,452 $2,486 +$34 (+1%)
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? No 74¢ 86¢ $1,555 $1,816 +$262 (+17%)
Will Trump flip the bird again in 2026? No 69¢ 84¢ $1,244 $1,528 +$284 (+23%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 95¢ 98¢ $1,424 $1,472 +$48 (+3%)
Will Ethereum dip to $800 by December 31, 2026? No 76¢ 80¢ $837 $885 +$49 (+6%)
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? No 87¢ 86¢ $609 $602 −$7 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 92¢ 99¢ $460 $497 +$37 (+8%)
Iran leadership change by December 31? No 75¢ 84¢ $440 $496 +$56 (+13%)
Epstein client list released by June 30? No 97¢ 99¢ $487 $493 +$7 (+1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by June 30, 2026? No 92¢ 99¢ $460 $493 +$33 (+7%)
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? No 88¢ 88¢ $486 $487 +$0 (+0%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 19¢ 16¢ $570 $482 −$88 (-16%)
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31, 2026? No 65¢ 74¢ $392 $441 +$49 (+13%)
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Yes 84¢ 83¢ $418 $416 −$3 (-1%)
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 64¢ 57¢ $387 $345 −$42 (-11%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? No 62¢ 80¢ $248 $322 +$74 (+30%)
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? No 88¢ 38¢ $704 $300 −$404 (-57%)
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 74¢ 74¢ $298 $296 −$2 (-1%)
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by July 31, 2026? No 86¢ 96¢ $258 $288 +$30 (+12%)
Ukraine agrees to limit size of armed forces before 2027? No 55¢ 85¢ $138 $212 +$75 (+55%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 93¢ 96¢ $186 $192 +$6 (+3%)
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $69 $60 −$8 (-12%)
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as President of Cuba by June 30? No 73¢ 97¢ $30 $40 +$10 (+33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $1,174 +$26 +2%
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election Jun 19 $980 +$20 +2%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $1,850 +$250 +14%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 18 $2,881 +$319 +11%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 16 $186 +$34 +18%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 15 $513 +$577 +113%
Will Civil Contract win the most seats in the 2026 Armenian National A Jun 14 $603 +$20 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $1,120 −$120 -11%
Will Graham Platner be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Maine? Jun 10 $32 +$18 +59%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 10 $284 +$16 +6%
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 08 $157 +$50 +32%
U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by March 31? Jun 08 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 8, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET Jun 08 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 08 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Epstein Data Set 13 be released by February 28? Jun 08 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in March? Jun 08 $18 −$18 -100%
ICE shooter charged by March 31? Jun 08 $60 −$60 -100%
U.S. strike on Somalia by February 7? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Government shutdown on Saturday? Jun 08 $135 −$135 -100%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Jun 08 $1,538 +$299 +19%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Jun 08 $65 −$55 -84%
Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $240 −$240 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 15, 2026? Jun 08 $474 −$300 -63%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $473 −$473 -100%
US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? Jun 08 $953 −$259 -27%
Will the Social Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $94 +$1 +1%
Will Venstre be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $114 +$1 +1%
Will Danish Social Liberal Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $127 +$2 +1%
Will Danish People’s Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $135 $0 +0%
Will Denmark Democrats be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $214 +$1 +1%
Will Red–Green Alliance be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $221 +$3 +1%
Will the Social Democratic Party (Faroe Islands) be part of the next G Jun 04 $320 +$58 +18%
Will Union Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $329 +$2 +0%
Will Conservative People’s Party be part of the next Government of Den Jun 04 $335 +$8 +2%
Will Naleraq be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $357 +$4 +1%
Will Inuit Ataqatigiit be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $513 +$9 +2%
Will Troels Lund Poulsen be the next prime minister of Denmark after t Jun 04 $605 +$85 +14%
Will Citizens’ Party be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,004 +$31 +3%
Will The Alternative be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,119 +$35 +3%
Will Green Left be part of the next Government of Denmark? Jun 04 $1,495 +$346 +23%
Will Lars Løkke Rasmussen be the next prime minister of Denmark after Jun 04 $2,449 +$100 +4%
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the Jun 04 $5,854 +$976 +17%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $206 +$390 +189%
Starmer out by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $138 +$53 +38%
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by May 31? Jun 01 $161 +$39 +24%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $1,812 +$285 +16%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 31 $57 −$33 -59%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 28 $310 −$100 -32%
Will Greenland vote for independence in 2026? May 23 $123 +$20 +16%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 13 $412 −$412 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $108 33h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $22 33h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $45 33h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $38 33h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $49 34h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $2 34h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $9 34h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $6 34h
Will Nicolás Maduro be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY Yes 74¢ $18 34h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $28 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $4 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $3 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $13 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 41h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $242 41h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $6 42h
Will Ivan Cepeda Castro win the 2026 Colombian presidential election? BUY No 88¢ $22 42h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 98¢ $539 42h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 42h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $8 42h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $257 43h
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY Yes 84¢ $84 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $185 43h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $1 43h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 15¢ $30 43h
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? BUY No 87¢ $609 43h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 61¢ $122 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $484 43h
Will Rebecca Shepherd finish second in the 2026 Makerfield by-election BUY No 98¢ $441 43h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $20,610.25 · official $20,610.25 (match) · 3500 history records