Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:19:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9aa…510e sports 354 markets active 1h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$89 (+1%) realized +$88 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate62%219W / 133L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$40est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$61now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$119
14 days−$119
30 days−$119
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 90% +$182
crypto 5% −$83
other 4% −$1
world 0% −$37
weather 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-13.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 41% -24.6%
≤30d 29 -9.2% -17.8% 52% 41% -24.6%
≤90d 173 -3.0% -12.2% 64% 43% -12.2%
all 352 -3.9% -13.0% 62% 44% -9.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.0% 44% -9.1%
10% -21.3% 32% -17.8%
15% -28.9% 25% -25.7%
20% -35.9% 18% -33.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$10 vs −$17 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.03 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$61
Realized+$88
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses219 / 133
Est. fees paid−$40
Open positions2
Markets (closed)352 / 354
History coverage117d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 352 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 74¢ $50 $52 +$2 (+3%)
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Yes 20¢ 18¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 13 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $49 +$21 +43%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $11 −$11 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $32 +$18 +57%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 +$5 +32%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $12 −$12 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $17 +$3 +15%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$16 +48%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $39 −$37 -95%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $55 −$54 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $37 −$37 -99%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $26 +$24 +90%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $31 −$31 -99%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $15 −$14 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 15 $6 +$14 +250%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $19 −$19 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $18 −$18 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $57 +$3 +6%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $26 +$4 +17%
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? Jun 14 $18 +$2 +8%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$9 -98%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $98 +$2 +2%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $7 +$1 +16%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $14 +$16 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $9 −$9 -94%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $9 +$21 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $16 −$16 -99%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $12 +$18 +158%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $10 −$8 -79%
Thunder vs. Lakers May 10 $22 −$19 -88%
Spurs vs. Timberwolves May 09 $21 −$10 -49%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 08 $13 +$17 +128%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 06 $20 −$20 -100%
Lakers vs. Thunder May 06 $37 +$11 +29%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs May 05 $39 +$1 +3%
76ers vs. Celtics May 02 $7 −$7 -99%
Lakers vs. Rockets May 02 $59 +$57 +97%
Pistons vs. Magic Apr 30 $7 +$6 +77%
Rockets vs. Lakers Apr 30 $55 −$54 -99%
Qingdao Eagles vs. Shanxi Loongs Apr 29 $15 +$4 +27%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 29 $118 +$2 +2%
Shandong Hi-Speed Kirin vs. Liaoning Flying Leopards Apr 28 $43 +$6 +15%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 28 $89 +$10 +11%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 28 $37 +$3 +8%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 27 $22 −$21 -96%
Nuggets vs. Timberwolves Apr 26 $46 −$31 -68%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 26 $100 $0 +0%
Lakers vs. Rockets Apr 25 $16 +$6 +36%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 24 $15 +$15 +101%
Cavaliers vs. Raptors Apr 24 $25 +$34 +134%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $10 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $51 1h
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 22h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 70¢ $49 22h
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $12 25h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $32 25h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 75¢ $15 25h
Spread: Norway (-1.5) BUY Norway 87¢ $17 26h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $11 32h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $34 32h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $2 47h
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 55¢ $39 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $19 2d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $36 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 63¢ $6 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 77¢ $31 2d
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 78¢ $31 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $26 3d
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $15 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 38¢ $19 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 36¢ $18 3d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $6 3d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 47¢ $10 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 94¢ $57 3d
Germany to score first vs. Curaçao? BUY Yes 92¢ $18 3d
Germany leading at halftime? BUY Yes 85¢ $26 3d
Spread: Australia (-1.5) BUY Australia 86¢ $7 3d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 98¢ $98 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $61.40 · official $61.40 (match) · 1027 history records