Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:51:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9a7…320c other 316 markets active 1h ago coverage 221d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 220d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$53 (+1%) realized +$35 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate24%74W / 230L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$30per market
Trades / day15.8pace
Fees−$36est.
Kalshi-fit53%portable
Net worth$943now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$96
7 days+$126
14 days+$84
30 days+$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 46% −$12
sports 25% +$98
politics 12% −$70
world 7% +$3
tech 5% −$1
economics 2% +$19
crypto 1% +$15
culture 1% $0
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-14.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +1.4% -8.2% 60% 60% +13.6%
≤30d 16 -17.9% -25.7% 31% 19% -3.4%
≤90d 21 -24.9% -32.1% 24% 14% -4.7%
all 304 -5.7% -14.6% 24% 8% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.6% 8% -8.8%
10% -22.8% 6% -17.5%
15% -30.3% 4% -25.5%
20% -37.1% 2% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 54% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -12% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×1.92 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

221d coverage
Net worth$943
Realized+$35
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses74 / 230
Est. fees paid−$36
Open positions12
Markets (closed)304 / 316
History coverage221d ⚠
Avg bet$30
Trades / day15.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit53%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 12 History 304 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $364 $366 +$2 (+0%)
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? Yes 34¢ 33¢ $188 $182 −$6 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 24¢ 24¢ $98 $100 +$2 (+2%)
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? No 20¢ 20¢ $97 $99 +$2 (+2%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 48¢ 52¢ $64 $70 +$6 (+9%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? No 35¢ 48¢ $33 $45 +$12 (+37%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 6¢ $27 $28 +$1 (+3%)
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? No 68¢ 71¢ $26 $27 +$1 (+5%)
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $11 $12 +$1 (+5%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $7 $7 −$0 (-6%)
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-3%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 8¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 22 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win Group I in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $354 +$82 +23%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $42 +$13 +32%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? Jun 21 $3 −$1 -41%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $60 +$34 +57%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $40 −$2 -5%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-25? Jun 19 $1 $0 -5%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $11 −$11 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 16 $6 −$1 -17%
o1 FDV above $100M one day after launch? Jun 15 $42 −$19 -46%
Will Türkiye win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $73 −$11 -15%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 14 $1 $0 -12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
OpenAI IPO before 2027? Jun 09 $244 +$8 +3%
Will Haiti win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -48%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 09 $794 +$45 +6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 01 $332 −$4 -1%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee May 24 $3 −$3 -95%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 24 $3 −$1 -25%
Will West Ham be relegated from the English Premier League after the 2 May 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the NBA Western Conference Finals? May 20 $245 −$5 -2%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 05 $18 −$2 -10%
Will Yariv Levin be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 01 $11 −$1 -6%
Will Israel strike 15 or more countries in 2026? Mar 01 $7 −$1 -17%
Will Clayton Keller win the 2025–2026 NHL Hart Memorial Trophy? Mar 01 $144 −$9 -6%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Mar 01 $2 +$3 +151%
Tom Holland announced as next James Bond? Mar 01 $5 $0 +5%
Paradex FDV above $10B one day after launch? Mar 01 $3 −$2 -67%
Will Alex Caruso win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year? Mar 01 $86 +$108 +126%
Will Anthropic’s market cap be less than $100B at market close on IPO Mar 01 $16 $0 -1%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in South Korea? Mar 01 $4 −$1 -29%
Will Project Hail Mary be the top grossing movie of 2026? Mar 01 $2 −$1 -69%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 3 Mar 01 $25 −$1 -5%
Will Databricks’ market cap be between $150B and $175B at market close Mar 01 $5 −$2 -32%
Paradex FDV above $5B one day after launch? Mar 01 $71 −$6 -8%
Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Mar 01 $2 −$2 -86%
Will Israel strike 10 countries in 2026? Mar 01 $1 −$1 -75%
Will Michael have the best domestic opening weekend in 2026? Mar 01 $44 $0 -0%
Will Israel strike 8 countries in 2026? Mar 01 $44 +$1 +3%
Will the Utah Mammoth win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Mar 01 $1 $0 +26%
Will Steve Ballmer be richest person on December 31? Mar 01 $262 −$11 -4%
Felix Protocol FDV above $1B one day after launch? Mar 01 $91 −$1 -1%
Will Israel strike 11 countries in 2026? Mar 01 $12 −$2 -19%
Will BRION win the LCK 2026 season playoffs? Mar 01 $16 −$7 -43%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Japan? Mar 01 $42 −$11 -26%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Qatar / UAE before 2027? Mar 01 $7 −$1 -8%
Will OpenAI’s market cap be less than $500B at market close on IPO day Mar 01 $5 $0 +4%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in Kazakhstan before 2027? Mar 01 $30 −$5 -17%
Will Israel strike 14 countries in 2026? Mar 01 $27 −$3 -11%
StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? Mar 01 $119 −$3 -2%
Will the New York Islanders win the Eastern Conference? Mar 01 $15 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 33m
GRVT FDV above $200M one day after launch? BUY Yes 69¢ $372 1h
GRVT FDV above $300M one day after launch? BUY Yes 34¢ $197 1h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? SELL Yes 7¢ $7 3h
GTA 6 launch postponed again? BUY Yes 8¢ $12 4h
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 8h
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? SELL No 67¢ $82 3d
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $5 3d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $8 5d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $20 5d
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? BUY No 68¢ $54 5d
Will the Fed’s upper bound reach 4.25% or higher before 2027? BUY No 67¢ $54 5d
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $24 5d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 39¢ $4 5d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? SELL No 13¢ $2 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 13¢ $2 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 34¢ $23 6d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $61 6d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? SELL No 47¢ $17 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $27 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? BUY No 35¢ $27 6d
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL Yes 6¢ $1 6d
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? BUY No 48¢ $144 6d
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? BUY No 37¢ $1 6d
Fed rate hike in 2026? SELL No 34¢ $8 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $11 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $5 6d
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 18¢ $4 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $942.51 · official $942.61 (match) · 3500 history records