Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:53:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc9a7…e76c other 117 markets active 1h ago coverage 52d
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 52d only
✗ bot/MM pace (65 trades/day) — uncopyable! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$1,844 (+12%) realized +$2,129 · open −$285
Gross ROI / mkt +80% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate53%48W / 43L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$129per market
Trades / day64.7pace
Fees−$10est.
Kalshi-fit41%portable
Net worth$1,843now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$390
7 days−$459
14 days+$379
30 days+$745
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 97% +$371
sports 1% −$54
world 1% +$143
tech 0% +$35
politics 0% −$4
crypto 0% $0
culture 0% −$2
finance 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (65 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)+63.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 +16.1% +5.0% 39% 30% -19.6%
≤30d 71 +81.0% +63.8% 51% 46% -0.7%
≤90d 91 +80.3% +63.1% 53% 48% -0.7%
all 91 +80.3% +63.1% 53% 48% -0.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover64.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +63.1% 48% -0.7%
10% ← realistic here +47.5% 48% -10.2%
15% +33.3% 45% -18.9%
20% +20.2% 41% -26.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 34% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +80% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$500) neutral
Persistence
early +60% → late +100% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
24.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$33 vs −$19 · ×1.72 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.97 per $1 lost it wins $1.97
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

52d coverage
Net worth$1,843
Realized+$2,129
Unrealized−$285
Win rate (resolved)53%
Wins / losses48 / 43
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Est. fees paid−$10
Open positions15
Markets (closed)91 / 117
History coverage52d ⚠
Avg bet$129
Trades / day64.7
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit41%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 15 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $929 $655 −$273 (-29%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $623 $581 −$42 (-7%)
Will Switzerland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $358 $399 +$42 (+12%)
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $95 $68 −$27 (-29%)
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 28¢ 32¢ $34 $38 +$4 (+13%)
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? Yes 10¢ $35 $38 +$3 (+9%)
Will Belgium reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $30 $35 +$5 (+15%)
Will Belgium reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final? Yes $13 $15 +$3 (+23%)
Will Belgium be eliminated in the Quarterfinals of the World Cup? Yes 13¢ 22¢ $6 $10 +$4 (+67%)
Justin & Hailey Bieber split in 2026? Yes 11¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-64%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $35,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes 15¢ 16¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+10%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? Yes $0 $0 +$0 (+7%)
Will Google Gemini score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam? Yes 15¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? No $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Will France, UK, or Germany strike Iran by June 30? Yes $0 $0 −$0 (-98%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Jabarie Walker be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Louisiana? Jun 29 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,406 −$220 -16%
Will South Africa be eliminated in the Round of 16 of the World Cup? Jun 28 $44 −$44 -100%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $3 +$3 +119%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $1,888 −$35 -2%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $54 −$54 -100%
Will Croatia advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $179 −$39 -22%
Will Panama finish second in Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Group Jun 27 $5 −$5 -100%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-26? Jun 27 $5 −$2 -42%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-21? Jun 27 $18 −$14 -78%
Will Belgium advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $115 −$74 -65%
Will Belgium be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group S Jun 27 $1 +$4 +400%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 27 $9 +$27 +297%
Will Croatia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $20 +$2 +8%
Will Portugal finish second in Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 26 $3 +$4 +110%
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026? Jun 25 $21 +$18 +84%
Will Waymo operate in 11 cities on June 30 2026? Jun 25 $9 $0 +2%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $90 +$30 +33%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $148 −$92 -62%
Will New Zealand vs. Belgium end in a draw? Jun 23 $26 −$3 -10%
Will Panama vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 23 $60 −$5 -9%
Will Neymar Jr.'s national team advance the furthest at the 2026 FIFA Jun 22 $34 +$41 +120%
Will Keir Starmer be the next leader out before 2027? Jun 22 $9 +$9 +109%
Will Croatia win Group L in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 22 $3 −$1 -46%
Will Cape Verde be eliminated in Group Stage stage of the World Cup? Jun 21 $5 −$1 -25%
Will Cape Verde finish last in Group H in the 2026 FIFA World Cup Grou Jun 21 $2 $0 -7%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $388 +$141 +36%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 20 $7 +$15 +213%
Will Japan win Group F in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $10 −$6 -59%
Will Egypt be the highest-scoring team in Group G during the Group Sta Jun 20 $3 +$1 +36%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 19 $8 +$13 +157%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14 Jun 18 $2 +$26 +1245%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $817 +$85 +10%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? A Jun 17 $9 +$17 +187%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end Jun 17 $1 +$3 +650%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? AND Will Argentina win on 202 Jun 17 $1 +$3 +311%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Argentina win on 2026-0 Jun 17 $1 +$4 +770%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a Jun 17 $1 +$6 +568%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$11 +212%
Will Czechia win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $2 −$1 -29%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $816 +$529 +65%
Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $200 −$6 -3%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 15 $6 +$2 +25%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 14 Jun 14 $43 +$84 +194%
Iran closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 14 $29 −$15 -54%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $3 $0 -7%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $5 +$5 +97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $25,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes $0 31m
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes $8 14h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $90 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $40 20h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $20 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $23 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $3 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $66 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $19 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $5 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $10 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $73 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $27 21h
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $0 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,842.64 · official $1,842.64 (match) · 3500 history records