Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T01:22:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc9a5…058d crypto 1371 markets active 0h ago coverage 81d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 81d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$108 (+1%) realized +$107 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR48%break-even
Win rate52%720W / 675L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day29.7pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$268
7 days−$256
14 days−$262
30 days−$261
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 88% −$190
sports 6% −$5
other 3% −$10
world 3% −$25
politics 0% +$18
finance 0% +$11
weather 0% +$1
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +48%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 134 -17.9% -25.7% 43% 43% -41.9%
≤30d 170 -14.0% -22.2% 45% 45% -37.1%
≤90d 1395 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 48% -13.3%
all 1395 -2.1% -11.5% 52% 48% -13.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.5% 48% -13.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.9% 46% -21.6%
15% -27.7% 45% -29.2%
20% -34.8% 45% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 0% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +11% → late -15% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$7 · ×0.85 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized+$107
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)52%
Wins / losses720 / 675
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1395 / 1371
History coverage81d ⚠
Avg bet$8
Trades / day29.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1395 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET Up 50¢ 62¢ $5 $6 +$1 (+25%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET Up 52¢ 52¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 388 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 23, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 16 $15 −$15 -100%
Solana Up or Down - March 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
XRP Up or Down - March 20, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET Jun 16 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Dogecoin Up or Down - March 16, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 16 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 22, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 16 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - March 20, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 16 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$5 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6PM ET Jun 15 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 4PM ET Jun 14 $3 +$2 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10AM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11AM ET Jun 14 $5 +$5 +90%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $5 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $1 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $3 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $2 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $3 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 23h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.20 · official $21.20 (match) · 3500 history records