Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T09:16:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C9 0xc9a3…da9e politics 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 564d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$879 (+51%) realized +$869 · open +$10
Gross ROI / mkt +69% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +52% what you keep after slip
Net edge+52%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%8W / 19L
Drawdown16%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit70%portable
Net worth$103now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5
7 days+$76
14 days+$76
30 days+$76
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% +$798
other 17% +$78
world 5% $0
sports 4% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+52.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 +63.3% +47.7% 43% 43% +18.3%
≤30d 14 +63.3% +47.7% 43% 43% +18.3%
≤90d 14 +63.3% +47.7% 43% 43% +18.3%
all 27 +68.6% +52.5% 30% 30% +41.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +52.5% 30% +41.9%
10% +37.9% 26% +28.3%
15% +24.6% 26% +15.9%
20% +12.4% 22% +4.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 90% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +31% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +69% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +74% → late +63% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$16 · ×9.15 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.85 per $1 lost it wins $3.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

564d coverage
Net worth$103
Realized+$869
Unrealized+$10
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses8 / 19
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)27 / 37
History coverage564d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown16%
Kalshi-fit70%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 27 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $57 +$7 (+13%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $39 $42 +$3 (+8%)
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 14 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 14 $11 −$11 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$1 -14%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $48 +$9 +19%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -97%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $10 +$11 +109%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $51 +$51 +100%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $5 +$13 +250%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 +$10 +980%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $22 −$17 -80%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $19 −$4 -22%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $61 +$26 +44%
Will Ilie Bolojan win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Anamaria Gavrilă win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Călin Georgescu win the Romanian presidential election? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Daniel Funeriu win the Romanian presidential election? Jan 31 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Jan 31 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 10-12 minutes? Jan 31 $30 −$30 -100%
Will George Simion win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Jan 14 $979 +$641 +66%
Will Trump's inaugural address be 12-14 minutes? Jan 13 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Trump say "carnage" during his inauguration speech? Jan 12 $55 −$55 -100%
Will China unban Bitcoin in 2024? Jan 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mircea Geoană win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Nicolae Ciucă win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Marcel Ciolacu win the 2024 Romanian Presidential election? Dec 06 $20 +$413 +2066%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 1h
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) BUY Alex Pereira 51¢ $11 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 27¢ $9 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND Wi BUY $10 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 20h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY 22¢ $51 26h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $15 30h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY $5 30h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? A BUY $10 30h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 81¢ $58 30h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes $3 31h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? AND Will Sweden vs. Tunisia BUY $2 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? AND BUY $10 2d
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 47¢ $10 2d
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 97¢ $101 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $51 3d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? SELL Yes 100¢ $11 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 3 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes $4 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 0 - 0 Czechia? BUY Yes 20¢ $5 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $5 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 42¢ $15 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 52¢ $19 3d
Exact Score: Korea Republic 2 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes $1 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 38¢ $17 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 67¢ $48 11d
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $40 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $103.48 · official $153.48 · 75 history records