Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:02:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc99e…3cd5 sports 10 markets active 3h ago coverage 57d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$595 (+35%) realized +$600 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown42%max
Avg bet$168per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$24est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$185now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days+$684
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% +$580
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+2.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +55.5% +40.7% 50% 50% -13.1%
≤30d 5 +58.5% +43.4% 60% 60% +35.1%
≤90d 7 +13.2% +2.4% 43% 43% +26.1%
all 7 +13.2% +2.4% 43% 43% +26.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +2.4% 43% +26.1%
10% -7.4% 43% +14.0%
15% -16.3% 43% +3.0%
20% -24.5% 43% -7.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 74% · top 2 95% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +39% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +39% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$313 vs −$88 · ×3.54 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.65 per $1 lost it wins $2.65
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

57d coverage
Net worth$185
Realized+$600
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$24
Open positions3
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage57d
Avg bet$168
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown42%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 23¢ 22¢ $50 $47 −$3 (-7%)
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Argentina 40¢ 40¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Jun 22 $86 +$49 +57%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $52 +$191 +365%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $103 −$102 -99%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 21 $155 −$153 -98%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $995 +$700 +70%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 26 $49 −$49 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 40¢ $41 2h
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $51 2h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $101 2h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $52 25h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 51¢ $103 25h
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 63¢ $86 26h
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Saudi Arabia 47¢ $155 26h
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 58¢ $995 42d
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 57d
Will Bayern Munich win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 37¢ $49 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $185.26 · official $187.43 · 13 history records