Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T19:16:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
C9 0xc99c…62ae other 429 markets active 2h ago coverage 69d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,417 (+8%) realized +$1,326 · open +$91
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate37%142W / 239L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$43per market
Trades / day8.5pace
Fees−$107est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$1,439now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$311
7 days+$684
14 days+$753
30 days+$1,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$367
sports 39% +$1,082
crypto 6% −$154
world 1% −$199
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-0.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 100 +25.6% +13.6% 36% 36% -3.4%
≤30d 177 +19.7% +8.3% 37% 37% -1.5%
≤90d 381 +9.8% -0.7% 37% 37% -4.7%
all 381 +9.8% -0.7% 37% 37% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.5 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -0.7% 37% -4.7%
10% -10.2% 36% -13.8%
15% -18.9% 36% -22.2%
20% -26.8% 31% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +6% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +10% · $-wt +6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +17% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$49 vs −$25 · ×1.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.17 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

69d coverage
Net worth$1,439
Realized+$1,326
Unrealized+$91
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses142 / 239
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$107
Open positions42
Markets (closed)381 / 429
History coverage69d
Avg bet$43
Trades / day8.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 42 History 381 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Yes 66¢ 100¢ $175 $265 +$90 (+51%)
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 63¢ 64¢ $190 $196 +$6 (+3%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Côte dIvoire 60¢ 60¢ $195 $193 −$2 (-1%)
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 6¢ $95 $125 +$30 (+31%)
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) Curaçao 57¢ 58¢ $60 $62 +$2 (+3%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $60 $56 −$4 (-7%)
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 40¢ 38¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-5%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 7¢ $65 $42 −$23 (-35%)
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 23¢ 24¢ $40 $42 +$2 (+5%)
Will Morocco win Group C in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 20¢ 30¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will Egypt reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 36¢ $25 $28 +$3 (+12%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 12¢ $20 $26 +$6 (+31%)
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $30 $24 −$6 (-21%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? No 56¢ 56¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 3¢ $11 $19 +$8 (+69%)
Will North America (CONCACAF) win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 4¢ $10 $18 +$8 (+83%)
Will Lionel Messi be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 6¢ 21¢ $5 $17 +$12 (+246%)
Will Paraguay reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 32¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+13%)
Will Colombia reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 50¢ 56¢ $15 $17 +$2 (+12%)
Will Colombia win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 29¢ 48¢ $10 $17 +$7 (+67%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 32¢ 42¢ $12 $17 +$4 (+34%)
Will DR Congo reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Switzerland reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 60¢ $15 $16 +$1 (+6%)
Will Mexico reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $15 $15 +$0 (+2%)
Will Senegal reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 33¢ 28¢ $15 $13 −$2 (-15%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners Jun 20 $31 +$20 +66%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Jun 20 $20 −$2 -8%
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Jun 20 $254 +$76 +30%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $406 +$215 +53%
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? Jun 20 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $6 −$6 -100%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 20 $82 −$63 -78%
Spread: Canada (-1.5) Jun 20 $102 −$102 -100%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 Korea Republic? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Canada 1 - 1 Qatar? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? Jun 19 $16 −$15 -96%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $103 +$110 +107%
Will Mexico win Group A in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $72 +$59 +82%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? AND Jun 19 $26 +$79 +310%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $41 −$41 -100%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: Switzerland 3 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Uzbekistan 0 - 2 Colombia? Jun 19 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Ghana 2 - 1 Panama? Jun 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $222 +$127 +57%
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Jun 18 $36 +$59 +163%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $81 +$85 +105%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $82 +$113 +137%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $15 −$15 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 1 DR Congo? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: England 3 - 3 Croatia? Jun 18 $7 −$7 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 1 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $8 −$8 -100%
Exact Score: Iraq 0 - 3 Norway? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -100%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $10 +$73 +704%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $31 +$76 +250%
Spread: Portugal (-2.5) Jun 17 $15 −$13 -81%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) AND Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 2.5 AND Will England Jun 17 $31 −$5 -15%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $306 +$111 +36%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $204 +$108 +53%
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals Jun 17 $10 +$11 +105%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $609 +$74 +12%
Exact Score: France 2 - 1 Senegal? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
Exact Score: France 1 - 0 Senegal? Jun 17 $16 −$16 -100%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $103 −$103 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 0 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Exact Score: IR Iran 3 - 1 New Zealand? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 2 Uruguay? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Saudi Arabia 0 - 1 Uruguay? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -100%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 17 $184 +$51 +28%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $168 +$70 +41%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) SELL Côte dIvoire 58¢ $99 1h
Will Ivory Coast reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 40¢ $51 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 67¢ $102 1h
Will Mexico reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $42 1h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $26 1h
Will Netherlands reach the Semifinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 23¢ $31 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 93¢ $243 1h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 75¢ $203 2h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 11¢ $10 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $102 4h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 60¢ $204 4h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $152 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 8¢ $7 5h
Exact Score: Ecuador 1 - 0 Curaçao? BUY Yes 11¢ $7 5h
Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) BUY Curaçao 57¢ $61 5h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) AND Spread: Ecuador (-2.5) AND Will Netherlands BUY 20¢ $41 5h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? SELL No 64¢ $19 16h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 38¢ $33 18h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 84¢ $289 19h
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) SELL Brazil 52¢ $98 25h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? SELL Yes 21¢ $18 26h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Türkiye O/U 4.5 Corners BUY Over 59¢ $31 26h
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 0 Paraguay? BUY Yes 9¢ $16 27h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 0 Morocco? BUY Yes 7¢ $19 27h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 13¢ $16 27h
Exact Score: United States 1 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 27h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $153 27h
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $82 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 59¢ $253 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,439.11 · official $1,479.30 · 971 history records