Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T18:22:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
C9 0xc997…b7f6 other 61 markets active 0h ago coverage 154d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$275 (-1%) realized −$256 · open −$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR46%break-even
Win rate71%42W / 17L
Whale WR73%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$413per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$70est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$81now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$967
7 days−$67
14 days−$67
30 days−$67
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 57% +$669
sports 23% −$1,097
crypto 19% +$1
weather 1% −$7
world 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +46%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 32 +3.8% -6.0% 75% 53% -8.5%
≤30d 32 +3.8% -6.0% 75% 53% -8.5%
≤90d 38 +0.9% -8.8% 71% 50% -9.2%
all 59 -0.3% -9.8% 71% 46% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 46% -9.7%
10% -18.5% 25% -18.4%
15% -26.3% 19% -26.3%
20% -33.6% 14% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 73% (≥$727) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$80 vs −$221 · ×0.36 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

154d coverage
Net worth$81
Realized−$256
Unrealized−$19
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses42 / 17
Whale WR (big bets)73%
Est. fees paid−$70
Open positions2
Markets (closed)59 / 61
History coverage154d
Avg bet$413
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 59 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+1%)
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? Yes 24¢ 14¢ $50 $30 −$20 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? Jun 21 $61 +$12 +20%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $904 +$154 +17%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $1,062 +$60 +6%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $1,522 −$1,464 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,515 −$820 -54%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $101 −$59 -58%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $2,404 +$149 +6%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $603 +$137 +23%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $314 +$282 +90%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,108 +$361 +33%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,202 +$55 +5%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $77 +$14 +18%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1,202 +$74 +6%
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 19 $15 −$3 -17%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $154 +$6 +4%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,003 +$118 +12%
Will United States vs. Australia end in a draw? Jun 19 $51 −$45 -88%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $302 +$64 +21%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $251 +$36 +14%
Will Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 18 $153 −$107 -70%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $554 +$211 +38%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $500 −$282 -56%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 18 $538 +$342 +64%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $540 +$5 +1%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $242 +$299 +123%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $401 −$159 -40%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $727 +$74 +10%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $656 +$71 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $371 +$79 +21%
Will IR Iran vs. New Zealand end in a draw? Jun 16 $263 +$137 +52%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $202 +$47 +23%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $302 +$82 +27%
Timberwolves vs. Nuggets Apr 19 $988 −$195 -20%
Hawks vs. Knicks Apr 19 $111 −$92 -83%
Will Sporting CP win on 2026-04-15? Apr 18 $826 +$109 +13%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-14? Apr 15 $542 +$283 +52%
Rockets vs. Timberwolves Mar 26 $868 −$325 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Mar 25 $859 +$9 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 19 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 19 $200 −$198 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Mar 19 $980 +$13 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Mar 19 $44 +$17 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Mar 19 $61 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Mar 19 $41 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Mar 19 $41 +$3 +6%
Lakers vs. Rockets Mar 19 $28 +$13 +47%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-03-17? Mar 18 $24 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Mar 15 $2 +$3 +160%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Mar 15 $5 +$3 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Mar 15 $10 +$2 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? SELL No 78¢ $73 14m
Will the highest temperature in Toronto be 24°C on June 21? BUY No 64¢ $61 1h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 32°C on June 22? BUY Yes 44¢ $51 2h
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 24°C on June 22? BUY Yes 24¢ $52 2h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,058 12h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 85¢ $904 14h
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 94¢ $1,062 19h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? SELL Yes 2¢ $58 20h
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $1,522 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $73 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 14¢ $154 20h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 45¢ $762 21h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? SELL No 55¢ $468 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 29¢ $42 21h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 87¢ $753 22h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $1,803 24h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $601 24h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-20? BUY No 81¢ $603 26h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 89¢ $251 37h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 52¢ $314 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 79¢ $302 37h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 62¢ $253 38h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 74¢ $302 39h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 95¢ $1,202 41h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 84¢ $77 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 42h
Will Scotland vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 16¢ $15 44h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY No 94¢ $1,202 44h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 96¢ $154 46h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $80.64 · official $80.64 (match) · 174 history records