Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T00:47:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc996…5f1f politics 75 markets active 2h ago coverage 631d
TRAPdo not copy politics specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$16 (-0%) realized −$16 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate1%1W / 74L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$219per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$1
14 days−$1
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 69% −$12
other 29% −$5
sports 1% +$1
tech 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -1.3% -10.7% 0% 0% -10.7%
≤30d 3 -0.4% -9.9% 0% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 13 -0.0% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
all 75 -0.5% -10.0% 1% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 100% · top 2 100% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.7 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×2.55 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.05 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

631d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$16
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)1%
Wins / losses1 / 74
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)75 / 75
History coverage631d
Avg bet$219
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 75 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 22 $53 −$1 -1%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju Jun 02 $53 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $52 +$1 +2%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 13 $52 $0 -0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $52 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 03 $52 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $106 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $53 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $53 $0 -0%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Apr 12 $53 $0 +0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 06 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 17 $53 $0 -0%
Will Rand Paul win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Mar 15 $53 $0 -0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 12 $53 $0 -0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ma Mar 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 26 $53 $0 +0%
Will Raylen Wilson be the first pick of the 2026 NFL Draft? Feb 06 $51 $0 -0%
Will Dan 'Jungleman' Cates win the 2025 National Heads-Up Poker Champi Nov 24 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Kraken win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Penguins win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trae Young lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Benfica win the UEFA Champions League? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Sevilla FC win La Liga? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the Western Conference? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Chelsea wins the Premier League? Jan 29 $3 $0 -0%
Will Mohamed Salah be the top goalscorer in the EPL? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Gaza in 2024? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will George Kittle be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Travis Etienne Jr. be the top Fantasy Running Back? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Rachel Lord announced as next BlackRock CEO? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win the AFC North? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Eric Adams out as NYC mayor before 2025? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Penn State win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
OpenSea token announcement in 2024? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Anthony Richardson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $4 $0 +0%
Will Girona win the UEFA Champions League? Dec 21 $1 $0 -0%
Will Ken Paxton be Trump's FBI director? Dec 21 $0 $0 -3%
Will Trump pardon SBF in his first 100 days? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Five Trump Cabinet confirmations in January? Dec 09 $1 $0 -1%
Will Drake London be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Cowboys win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will the Bears win the NFC North? Dec 09 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Raiders win the AFC Championship? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Yamandú Orsi win the 2024 Uruguay presidential election? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Fed cut interest rates 6+ times in 2024? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
Will Trump tweet 50 or more times Nov 22-29? Nov 26 $1 $0 -0%
No Trump coin reaches $1b? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $52 1h
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $53 14h
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 10d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 10d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju SELL No 100¢ $53 20d
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ju BUY No 100¢ $53 22d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $53 32d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 98¢ $53 32d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 98¢ $53 37d
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 96¢ $52 38d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $52 40d
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $52 40d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 99¢ $52 46d
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 99¢ $52 47d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $52 50d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $52 51d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 97¢ $53 65d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 65d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $53 67d
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $53 67d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 69d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 70d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? SELL No 100¢ $53 71d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? BUY No 100¢ $53 72d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $53 77d
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $53 77d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $53 87d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $53 87d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $53 97d
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $53 98d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 167 history records