Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T04:32:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc995…61aa politics 139 markets active 0h ago coverage 143d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$1,738 (-1%) realized −$1,737 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR11%break-even
Win rate18%25W / 113L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,193per market
Trades / day2.5pace
Fees−$42est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$366now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$21
14 days+$63
30 days+$115
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 44% −$87
other 37% −$45
sports 14% −$1,604
economics 2% −$24
culture 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
world 1% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +11%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 38 +7.7% -2.6% 13% 11% -9.4%
≤90d 86 -9.8% -18.4% 10% 7% -11.0%
all 138 -2.6% -11.9% 18% 11% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 11% -10.5%
10% -20.3% 11% -19.1%
15% -28.0% 8% -26.9%
20% -35.1% 8% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 79% · top 2 82% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,503) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +5% → late -10% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$35 · ×2.29 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.53 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

143d coverage
Net worth$366
Realized−$1,737
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses25 / 113
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$42
Open positions1
Markets (closed)138 / 139
History coverage143d
Avg bet$1,193
Trades / day2.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 138 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? No 100¢ 99¢ $367 $366 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 17 $2,989 −$3 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 16 $1,115 −$2 -0%
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $934 −$1 -0%
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 15 $2,643 −$4 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $961 −$2 -0%
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 14 $2,773 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 14 $2,114 −$3 -0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,028 −$2 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 10 $1,174 −$2 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,650 −$3 -0%
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin Jun 09 $4,039 −$5 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 08 $1,430 −$2 -0%
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 08 $1,224 −$2 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 07 $2,599 −$3 -0%
Will Esteban Ocon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 07 $2,262 −$2 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 06 $1,071 −$2 -0%
Washington Nationals vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 06 $56 +$64 +114%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks Jun 05 $72 +$40 +55%
Will Franco Colapinto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $3,727 −$4 -0%
Will François Asselineau win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $1,362 −$2 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $558 +$2 +0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $4,512 −$5 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 01 $1,741 −$3 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $744 −$1 -0%
Will François Ruffin win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $1,757 −$3 -0%
Will 9 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 28 $880 −$1 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $547 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 26 $1,201 −$2 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 26 $3,567 −$4 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 25 $1,271 −$2 -0%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $75 +$57 +76%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-05-24? May 24 $63 +$33 +52%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? May 22 $1,145 −$2 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 21 $2,272 −$2 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $2,638 −$3 -0%
Will Jair Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 21 $1,129 $0 -0%
Will Greg Abbott win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 20 $1,395 −$2 -0%
Will Solana reach $160 in May? May 19 $738 −$2 -0%
Wild vs. Stars Apr 29 $1,444 −$1,444 -100%
Will Belgium win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,349 −$1 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $1,262 −$1 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 22 $2,581 −$3 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 21 $2,595 −$3 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $2,398 −$2 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 20 $1,363 −$1 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 20 $1,367 −$1 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 19 $2,503 −$3 -0%
Will Jeon Hyun-heui win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 19 $1,265 −$1 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $2,604 −$3 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $3,240 −$3 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $739 1m
Will Pierre Gasly be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $739 1h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,114 16h
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,115 19h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $932 21h
Will Michel Barnier win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $934 25h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,146 42h
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,148 43h
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $959 2d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $961 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,000 2d
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,001 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $968 2d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $969 2d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,027 4d
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,028 4d
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $367 4d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,172 6d
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,174 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,493 6d
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,495 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $1,110 7d
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $1,111 7d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin SELL No 99¢ $1,379 8d
Will Sarah Huckabee Sanders win the 2028 Republican presidential nomin BUY No 99¢ $1,382 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,428 8d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,430 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 99¢ $1,223 8d
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,224 9d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,304 9d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $366.43 · official $366.43 (match) · 450 history records