Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:18:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc995…a06d crypto 100 markets active 1h ago coverage 93d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$458 (-8%) realized −$430 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate42%41W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$59per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$142now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$25
7 days−$46
14 days−$46
30 days−$46
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 56% −$587
sports 37% −$4
other 3% −$106
politics 2% −$10
world 2% +$130
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 37% -13.3%
≤30d 27 -1.8% -11.1% 44% 37% -13.3%
≤90d 61 -12.3% -20.6% 39% 36% -24.8%
all 97 -5.9% -14.9% 42% 37% -18.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.9% 37% -18.4%
10% -23.0% 37% -26.2%
15% -30.4% 33% -33.4%
20% -37.3% 32% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late -14% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$45 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

93d coverage
Net worth$142
Realized−$430
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses41 / 56
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions3
Markets (closed)97 / 100
History coverage93d
Avg bet$59
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Spread: England (-1.5) Croatia 70¢ 56¢ $100 $79 −$21 (-21%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Under 57¢ 58¢ $50 $51 +$1 (+2%)
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Yes 26¢ 16¢ $20 $12 −$8 (-40%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $28 +$40 +140%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $103 +$81 +78%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 16 $102 −$100 -98%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $14 +$25 +172%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 16 $100 +$55 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 15 $25 −$25 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $25 +$31 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $11 −$10 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $11 +$25 +237%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $106 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $128 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $26 −$25 -96%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $31 −$30 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$48 +237%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 14 $30 +$17 +55%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $11 +$24 +213%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 14 $52 +$73 +140%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G - Game 4 Winner Jun 14 $81 −$50 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Apr 08 $20 −$20 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:10AM-8:15AM ET Apr 08 $100 −$95 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Apr 08 $10 −$9 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Apr 08 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Apr 08 $20 +$15 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 08 $9 −$8 -93%
Game Handicap: GEN (-1.5) vs T1 (+1.5) Apr 08 $100 −$99 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 08 $50 +$48 +96%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 08 $50 +$82 +163%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 06 $60 −$58 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 6, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Apr 06 $50 −$48 -96%
Will Tô Lâm be the next President of Vietnam? Apr 06 $114 −$10 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Mar 25 $46 −$46 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Mar 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Mar 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Mar 25 $375 −$345 -92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Mar 24 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$19 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Mar 24 $30 +$41 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 24 $20 +$26 +132%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 24 $50 +$14 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 24 $29 +$15 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Mar 23 $310 +$70 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Under 57¢ $51 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 1h
Spread: England (-1.5) BUY Croatia 70¢ $101 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 3h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 41¢ $28 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $103 9h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 13¢ $20 30h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $51 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET BUY Up 74¢ $102 30h
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 6.5 Total Corners BUY Over 43¢ $20 43h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 64¢ $100 46h
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $14 46h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $5 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 9.5 Total Corners BUY Over 35¢ $25 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $31 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Cabo Verde 44¢ $25 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 11¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET BUY Down 25¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 26¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 31¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $100 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $5 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $102 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $26 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $26 2d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $31 2d
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $69 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $142.39 · official $142.39 (match) · 205 history records