Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T00:40:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc995…fc0a sports 194 markets active 0h ago coverage 117d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$163 (-2%) realized −$164 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR42%break-even
Win rate65%124W / 68L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$52per market
Trades / day5.1pace
Fees−$31est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$21now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$137
7 days−$61
14 days−$357
30 days−$288
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 70% +$14
other 26% −$261
crypto 1% −$53
weather 1% −$7
world 1% −$7
politics 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +42%
net ROI/market (all)-15.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 -15.6% -23.6% 58% 50% -16.5%
≤30d 46 -7.2% -16.1% 65% 35% -14.4%
≤90d 173 -5.2% -14.2% 69% 44% -12.0%
all 192 -6.1% -15.0% 65% 42% -12.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.1 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.0% 42% -12.4%
10% -23.2% 21% -20.8%
15% -30.6% 15% -28.4%
20% -37.4% 12% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
34% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$17 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

117d coverage
Net worth$21
Realized−$164
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)65%
Wins / losses124 / 68
Est. fees paid−$31
Open positions2
Markets (closed)192 / 194
History coverage117d
Avg bet$52
Trades / day5.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 192 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays Tampa Bay Rays 85¢ 91¢ $10 $11 +$1 (+8%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Pittsburgh Pirates 93¢ 97¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $181 −$24 -14%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels Jun 24 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $121 +$14 +12%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$4 +42%
Morocco leading at halftime? Jun 24 $10 −$10 -99%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland Jun 23 $20 +$2 +11%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $80 +$7 +8%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $101 +$46 +46%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$7 +65%
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks Jun 22 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $101 +$44 +44%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $251 −$225 -90%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $201 −$160 -80%
Germany to win the second half? Jun 14 $401 +$11 +3%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $342 +$67 +20%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $301 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $101 +$11 +11%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: England vs Sri Lanka Jun 12 $88 +$5 +6%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 12 $300 +$12 +4%
ITF Cuiaba: Luiza Fullana vs Marjorie Souza Jun 11 $300 −$37 -12%
Texas Rangers vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 11 $201 +$49 +24%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 +$2 +18%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $5 $0 +8%
Atlanta Dream vs. Chicago Sky Jun 10 $148 +$7 +5%
Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles Jun 09 $8 −$4 -47%
Azerbaijan vs. San Marino: O/U 4.5 Jun 09 $4 $0 +3%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Toronto Blue Jays Jun 09 $5 +$3 +57%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $3 −$2 -53%
Will France win on 2026-06-08? Jun 08 $44 +$4 +9%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs: O/U 7.5 Jun 08 $6 −$2 -35%
Spread: Los Angeles Dodgers (-1.5) Jun 07 $5 +$4 +80%
Milwaukee Brewers vs. Colorado Rockies Jun 07 $50 −$12 -23%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 07 $50 +$2 +4%
Chicago White Sox vs. Philadelphia Phillies Jun 06 $202 +$17 +8%
Phoenix Mercury vs. Seattle Storm Jun 04 $186 +$23 +12%
Indiana Fever vs. PortlandFire May 31 $101 −$40 -40%
Toronto Blue Jays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 30 $200 +$7 +4%
Atlanta Dream vs. PortlandFire May 30 $101 +$2 +2%
Roland Garros ATP: Joao Fonseca vs Novak Djokovic May 29 $101 +$8 +8%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 29 $241 +$12 +5%
Connecticut Sun vs. PortlandFire May 28 $172 +$28 +16%
Roland Garros ATP: Valentin Royer vs Novak Djokovic May 27 $191 +$25 +13%
Roland Garros WTA: Francesca Jones vs Marie Bouzkova May 27 $200 −$32 -16%
Washington Nationals vs. Cleveland Guardians May 27 $60 +$18 +30%
Thunder vs. Spurs May 25 $10 +$3 +31%
Avalanche vs. Golden Knights May 25 $10 −$10 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 24 $30 −$18 -61%
Will Real Madrid CF win on 2026-05-23? May 23 $200 +$3 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Seattle Mariners vs. Pittsburgh Pirates BUY Pittsburgh Pirates 93¢ $10 29m
Kansas City Royals vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Tampa Bay Rays 85¢ $10 29m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 100¢ $115 33m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 87¢ $100 57m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 50¢ $8 1h
Baltimore Orioles vs. Los Angeles Angels BUY Baltimore Orioles 88¢ $100 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 96¢ $84 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 39¢ $34 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 95¢ $51 2h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 2h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 70¢ $10 5h
Morocco leading at halftime? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 5h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 84¢ $60 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $40 5h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 80¢ $30 28h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Sri Lanka vs Ireland BUY Sri Lanka 90¢ $20 34h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 92¢ $80 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $101 2d
New York Liberty vs. Los Angeles Sparks BUY New York Liberty 89¢ $20 2d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 60¢ $10 2d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 3d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 64¢ $30 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 9¢ $26 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $51 9d
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 16¢ $41 9d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 76¢ $201 9d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 93¢ $200 9d
Germany to win the second half? SELL Yes 95¢ $412 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $21.21 · official $21.13 (match) · 729 history records