Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:21:18+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc994…d2f1 world 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 466d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate62%13W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$3
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 61% −$2
other 27% −$3
finance 8% +$1
sports 2% $0
tech 2% $0
culture 0% $0
politics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 -3.9% -13.1% 25% 0% -11.7%
≤30d 9 -1.9% -11.2% 33% 0% -10.8%
≤90d 13 +0.7% -8.9% 54% 8% -10.2%
all 21 +1.0% -8.6% 62% 5% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.6% 5% -10.1%
10% -17.4% 0% -18.7%
15% -25.4% 0% -26.5%
20% -32.7% 0% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 54% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -1% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$2 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

466d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses13 / 8
Open positions0
Markets (closed)21 / 21
History coverage466d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 21 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 24 $48 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $4 $0 -7%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 23 $49 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $36 −$3 -9%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $54 −$2 -4%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 26 $86 −$2 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 26 $21 +$1 +3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $28 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $74 +$1 +1%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $44 +$1 +3%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 23 $46 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +10%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $3 $0 +12%
Will Benfica win the FIFA Club World Cup? Dec 11 $1 $0 +2%
Will Meta have the top AI model on June 30? Dec 11 $9 $0 +2%
Will How to Train Your Dragon be the top grossing movie of 2025? Jul 17 $2 $0 +1%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec Jun 04 $1 $0 +4%
Trump ends Ukraine war in first 90 days? Apr 25 $2 $0 +2%
Will the Ottawa Senators win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 29 $1 $0 +0%
Will the Texas Rangers win the 2025 World Series? Mar 24 $10 $0 +0%
Will the Milwaukee Bucks win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 20 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 97¢ $49 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $48 3h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes $3 7h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 11h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $6 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 80¢ $43 16h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $49 16h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $10 19h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 14¢ $10 24h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $3 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $6 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 14¢ $15 29h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 16¢ $26 30h
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $16 27d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $21 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 33¢ $15 28d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? BUY Yes 34¢ $54 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? SELL Yes 44¢ $54 28d
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? BUY Yes 42¢ $51 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL Yes 62¢ $22 28d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY Yes 60¢ $21 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 43¢ $28 28d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 43¢ $28 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL Yes 30¢ $2 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY Yes 30¢ $28 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $38 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? SELL No 70¢ $8 29d
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? BUY No 69¢ $46 29d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $27 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.54 · official $0.00 (match) · 62 history records