Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T21:10:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc990…452b crypto 1209 markets active 0h ago coverage 21d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (71 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$9 (+0%) realized +$9 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -24% what you keep after slip
Net edge-24%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate78%948W / 260L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day71.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6
7 days−$6
14 days−$14
30 days−$29
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (71 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 379 -0.2% -9.7% 81% 39% -10.1%
≤30d 1208 -0.7% -10.2% 78% 41% -10.4%
≤90d 1208 -0.7% -10.2% 78% 41% -10.4%
all 1208 -0.7% -10.2% 78% 41% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover71.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -10.2% 41% -10.4%
10% ← realistic here -18.8% 15% -19.0%
15% -26.6% 3% -26.8%
20% -33.8% 1% -34.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 1% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.25 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

21d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized+$9
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses948 / 260
Open positions1
Markets (closed)1208 / 1209
History coverage21d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day71.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 1208 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Down 95¢ 100¢ $2 $2 +$0 (+5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -77%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$1 -44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 95¢ $2 3m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Down 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET SELL Down 43¢ $0 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 89¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 44¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET SELL Down 41¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Down 86¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 90¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $2 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET SELL Up 30¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $2 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.07 · official $1.97 (match) · 2654 history records