Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T01:56:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc990…9d1a other 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 317d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$17 (-0%) realized −$17 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate33%35W / 70L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$60per market
Trades / day1.3pace
Fees−$14est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$42now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1
7 days−$14
14 days+$7
30 days−$18
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 29% +$2
world 26% −$19
sports 23% +$1
economics 11% −$5
politics 6% +$1
culture 2% +$1
finance 2% $0
crypto 0% $0
tech 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-7.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +6.8% -3.4% 30% 10% -11.2%
≤30d 26 +2.2% -7.6% 35% 8% -10.4%
≤90d 34 +1.5% -8.2% 29% 6% -10.0%
all 105 +1.8% -7.9% 33% 3% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.9% 3% -9.9%
10% -16.7% 2% -18.5%
15% -24.8% 2% -26.4%
20% -32.1% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 61% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.65 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

317d coverage
Net worth$42
Realized−$17
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses35 / 70
Est. fees paid−$14
Open positions3
Markets (closed)105 / 108
History coverage317d
Avg bet$60
Trades / day1.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 105 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? No 90¢ 90¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 46¢ 76¢ $0 $1 +$0 (+66%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 84¢ 86¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 17 $84 −$1 -1%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $92 $0 -0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 16 $118 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $4 +$3 +75%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $34 $0 -1%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $85 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 13 $81 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 12 $27 +$1 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 11 $213 −$16 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? Jun 09 $105 +$20 +19%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 08 $15 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 06 $21 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 04 $94 +$2 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $102 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? May 31 $95 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? May 30 $107 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 29 $27 +$1 +3%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $176 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 28 $50 −$15 -30%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 28 $95 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? May 24 $4 $0 +7%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 24 $96 −$11 -11%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $30 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 18? May 16 $33 $0 -0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 14 $140 −$1 -0%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 24 $493 $0 -0%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 23 $95 −$1 -1%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 22 $586 +$3 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $641 −$4 -1%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $166 −$3 -2%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $619 −$1 -0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 30 $5 $0 +3%
Will the Golden State Warriors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 30 $6 $0 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 16 $4 $0 -0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 16 $2 +$4 +167%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 19 $8 $0 +1%
Will 4 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $4 $0 -10%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Dec 12 $24 $0 +1%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 26 $59 $0 -0%
Will Liverpool win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $15 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $43 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win on 2025-11-30? Nov 25 $7 $0 +0%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 24 $20 $0 +0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 24 $18 $0 +0%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Nov 23 $24 $0 +0%
Will Getafe win on 2025-11-28? Nov 22 $19 $0 -0%
Miami vs. Virginia Tech Nov 22 $18 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 90¢ $42 53m
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $83 3h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $83 5h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $84 9h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 93¢ $92 24h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $92 24h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $93 2d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $93 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 28¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 16¢ $2 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $14 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $19 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $12 3d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 3d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $54 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $28 4d
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $82 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 94¢ $81 4d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 94¢ $81 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $6 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 4¢ $2 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 4¢ $4 4d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $8 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $20 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $22 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 35¢ $5 5d
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL Yes 2¢ $3 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.70 · official $40.45 · 450 history records