Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T13:12:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc98f…a13f sports 193 markets active 1h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 2d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (1369 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$12,090 (+25%) realized +$11,756 · open +$334
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate46%100W / 117L
Whale WR97%big bets
Drawdown15%max
Avg bet$255per market
Trades / day1368.7pace
Fees−$154est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$1,717now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
sports 76% +$2,811
other 22% +$3,250
crypto 3% +$161
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (1369 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-8.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 217 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 17% -0.5%
≤30d 217 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 17% -0.5%
≤90d 217 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 17% -0.5%
all 217 +1.5% -8.2% 46% 17% -0.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1368.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -8.2% 17% -0.5%
10% ← realistic here -17.0% 14% -10.0%
15% -25.0% 11% -18.7%
20% -32.3% 9% -26.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 28% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 97% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +31% → late -28% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
17.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$81 vs −$26 · ×3.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$1,717
Realized+$11,756
Unrealized+$334
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses100 / 117
Whale WR (big bets)97%
Est. fees paid−$154
Open positions6
Markets (closed)217 / 193
History coverage2d ⚠
Avg bet$255
Trades / day1368.7
Drawdown15%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 217 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 77¢ 98¢ $659 $845 +$186 (+28%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 76¢ 99¢ $641 $830 +$189 (+30%)
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari Maria Sakkari 71¢ 46¢ $64 $41 −$23 (-36%)
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters Last Chance Qualifier Saigon Warriors $10 $0 −$9 (-98%)
Roland Garros WTA: Panna Udvardy vs Viktorija Golubic Panna Udvardy $4 $0 −$4 (-98%)
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova Anastasia Potapova $5 $0 −$5 (-99%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 99 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: GenOne vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $43 −$43 -100%
Bratislava: Taro Daniel vs Emilio Nava Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Keegan Smith vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Ilkley: Elizabeth Mandlik vs Dalma Galfi Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Maxim Mrva Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Lyon: Tristan Boyer vs Nikolas Sanchez Izquierdo Jun 15 $31 −$31 -100%
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Katie Boulter Jun 15 $117 −$117 -100%
LoL: LOUD vs LOS (BO3) - Esports World Cup South America & LATAM Quali Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Counter-Strike: XI Esport vs MASQ (BO1) - Dust2.dk Ligaen Group B Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
LoL: Partizan Sangal vs WLGaming Esports (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group C Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $36 −$36 -100%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stag Jun 15 $59 −$59 -100%
Golden Knights vs. Hurricanes Jun 15 $77 −$77 -100%
Modena: Nuria Brancaccio vs Lucia Bronzetti Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Libema Open: Nuno Borges vs Marin Cilic Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Las Vegas Aces vs. PortlandFire Jun 15 $67 −$67 -100%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Hernan Casanova Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Pittsburgh Pirates Jun 15 $35 −$35 -100%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 15 $12 −$12 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs B8 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $75 −$75 -100%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 15 $0 $0 -100%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 15 $172 −$172 -100%
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola Jun 15 $146 −$146 -100%
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl Jun 15 $1 $0 -97%
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin Jun 15 $1 $0 -97%
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La Jun 15 $4 −$3 -97%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $460 +$52 +11%
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $471 +$29 +6%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $138 +$12 +9%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $307 +$893 +291%
Spread: Sweden (-1.5) Jun 15 $74 −$30 -40%
Spread: Sweden (-2.5) Jun 15 $275 +$40 +15%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $45 −$44 -98%
Spread: Golden Knights (-1.5) Jun 15 $49 +$1 +3%
Spread: Hurricanes (-2.5) Jun 15 $68 +$37 +55%
Spread: Golden Knights (-2.5) Jun 15 $49 +$1 +2%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $1,003 +$47 +5%
Spread: Hurricanes (-1.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Michael Chandler vs. Mauricio Ruffy (Lightweight, Mai Jun 15 $51 −$39 -76%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $108 −$105 -97%
Spread: Boston Red Sox (-1.5) Jun 15 $10 −$5 -48%
Spread: Tunisia (-1.5) Jun 15 $25 −$24 -97%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 15 $735 +$165 +22%
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
UFC Freedom 250: Kyle Daukaus vs. Bo Nickal (Middleweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $34 +$6 +17%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova $3 37m
Grass Court Championships: Ekaterina Alexandrova vs Anastasia Potapova BUY Anastasia Potapova $3 37m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
Nottingham Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Maria Sakkari BUY Maria Sakkari 71¢ $7 57m
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $2 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $2 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $1 1h
LoL: Saigon Warriors vs Top Esports Challenger (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $2 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Nottingham 2: Luca Nardi vs Remy Bertola BUY Luca Nardi 91¢ $18 1h
Counter-Strike: Rooster vs DXA Esports (BO3) - Dfrag Open Series #5 Pl BUY DXA Esports $1 3h
Dota 2: Team Resilience vs Cloud Rising (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Cloud Rising $1 4h
LoL: KT Rolster Challengers vs Saigon Warriors (BO3) - Asia Masters La BUY Saigon Warriors $0 5h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,716.53 · official $1,716.53 (match) · 3500 history records