Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T19:01:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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C9 0xc98f…aada crypto 405 markets active 2h ago coverage 116d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$19 (-0%) realized −$16 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate79%320W / 83L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$47per market
Trades / day6.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$64now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$45
7 days−$31
14 days−$31
30 days−$31
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 95% −$11
other 4% −$25
sports 1% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-12.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -32.6% -39.0% 20% 20% -24.1%
≤30d 5 -32.6% -39.0% 20% 20% -24.1%
≤90d 250 -3.7% -12.8% 85% 4% -9.7%
all 403 -3.6% -12.8% 79% 5% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.8% 5% -9.7%
10% -21.1% 3% -18.4%
15% -28.8% 2% -26.3%
20% -35.7% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 12% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
94% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.82 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

116d coverage
Net worth$64
Realized−$16
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses320 / 83
Open positions2
Markets (closed)403 / 405
History coverage116d
Avg bet$47
Trades / day6.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 403 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 62¢ 61¢ $47 $46 −$1 (-2%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 25 $42 −$26 -63%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? Jun 24 $21 −$18 -87%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? Jun 22 $10 −$2 -18%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Jun 21 $99 +$18 +18%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? Jun 20 $21 −$3 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 24 $10 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET May 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET May 24 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET May 24 $5 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET May 24 $10 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET May 24 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET May 24 $5 −$4 -75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 24 $5 +$2 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET May 24 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET May 24 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET May 22 $100 −$25 -25%
XRP Up or Down - May 22, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET May 22 $100 −$14 -14%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 22, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET May 22 $29 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET May 22 $100 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Solana Up or Down - May 22, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET May 22 $100 +$1 +1%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET May 08 $5 −$2 -42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 08 $44 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET May 08 $29 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET May 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 08 $16 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET May 08 $2 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 08 $10 +$1 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 08 $49 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET May 08 $10 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 8, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET May 08 $24 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 07 $49 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 07 $48 +$2 +4%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 07 $5 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET May 07 $49 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET May 07 $14 $0 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET May 07 $49 +$1 +3%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET May 07 $49 +$1 +2%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 7, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 07 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Apr 19 $1 −$1 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12PM ET Apr 17 $144 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Apr 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Solana Up or Down - April 13, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$1 +1%
XRP Up or Down - April 13, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Apr 13 $100 +$1 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 62¢ $48 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $10 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 26 to July 3, 2026? BUY Yes 18¢ $21 12h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 26h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 34h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $6 34h
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 22 to June 24, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $10 3d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 20¢ $21 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 18¢ $18 4d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $21 5d
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 23 to June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $21 5d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 69¢ $117 6d
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 56¢ $99 7d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 34¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $11 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Down 77¢ $10 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $6 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Down 71¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Down 37¢ $3 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 87¢ $7 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 7¢ $0 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET SELL Up 94¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $5 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET SELL Down 83¢ $7 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $5 31d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $64.27 · official $64.27 (match) · 1127 history records