Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T09:32:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc98c…5534 crypto 32 markets active 2h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$18 (-1%) realized −$18 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate84%26W / 5L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$118now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$3
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 73% −$3
crypto 20% $0
other 7% −$16
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 5 -4.0% -13.1% 20% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 17 -2.0% -11.3% 71% 0% -10.9%
all 31 -1.0% -10.4% 84% 0% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 0% -10.7%
10% -19.0% 0% -19.2%
15% -26.8% 0% -27.0%
20% -34.0% 0% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 68% · top 2 71% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.01 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.06 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$118
Realized−$18
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)84%
Wins / losses26 / 5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)31 / 32
History coverage107d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 100¢ 100¢ $118 $118 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 12 $10 −$2 -20%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $178 +$1 +0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? Jun 11 $562 −$1 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Jun 04 $138 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 30 $101 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? May 03 $104 −$16 -15%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? May 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? Apr 09 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? Apr 08 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 3? Apr 07 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? Apr 03 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? Apr 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? Apr 01 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? Mar 31 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? Mar 30 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? Mar 27 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 24? Mar 25 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on March 23? Mar 24 $15 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 21? Mar 23 $10 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on March 20? Mar 21 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on March 19? Mar 20 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on March 18? Mar 19 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,600 on March 17? Mar 18 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on March 16? Mar 17 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 14? Mar 16 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $70 on March 13? Mar 14 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 11? Mar 13 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on March 10? Mar 11 $11 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,700 on March 9? Mar 10 $14 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $60,000 and $62,000 on March 8? Mar 09 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 100¢ $118 1h
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? SELL Yes 4¢ $8 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? BUY Yes 5¢ $10 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $50 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 65¢ $5 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $54 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 62¢ $124 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 62¢ $124 11d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? SELL No 93¢ $560 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 93¢ $187 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $187 12d
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 12? BUY No 94¢ $188 12d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $60 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $77 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? BUY No 99¢ $138 19d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL No 93¢ $101 24d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY No 93¢ $101 25d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? SELL Yes 2¢ $33 50d
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? BUY Yes 4¢ $50 74d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on April 9? BUY No 100¢ $14 75d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on April 8? BUY No 100¢ $11 76d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on April 7? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 77d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on April 3? BUY No 100¢ $13 81d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on April 2? BUY Yes 100¢ $14 82d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on April 1? BUY No 100¢ $14 83d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on March 31? BUY No 100¢ $10 84d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 30? BUY Yes 100¢ $10 85d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on March 27? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 88d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,800 and $1,900 on March 26? BUY No 100¢ $11 89d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on March 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $12 90d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $118.33 · official $118.33 (match) · 76 history records