Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T21:06:32+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc98b…6430 world 375 markets active 0h ago coverage 128d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$14,842 (+3%) realized +$14,843 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate69%254W / 114L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown89%max
Avg bet$1,267per market
Trades / day25.6pace
Fees−$141est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1,339now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 128d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% +$4,025
other 23% +$4,819
politics 21% −$3,257
finance 5% +$507
crypto 2% −$1,435
sports 2% +$1,269
tech 1% +$108
economics 1% +$469
culture 0% +$48
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-3.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +3.2% -6.6% 80% 20% -7.3%
≤30d 70 +2.1% -7.7% 63% 39% -6.0%
≤90d 240 +6.8% -3.4% 68% 27% -7.2%
all 368 +6.4% -3.8% 69% 26% -8.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover25.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -3.8% 26% -8.3%
10% -13.0% 17% -17.0%
15% ← realistic here -21.4% 12% -25.1%
20% -29.1% 10% -32.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
61% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$1,702) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late +5% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.4 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$90 vs −$145 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.4 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,339
Realized+$14,843
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses254 / 114
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$141
Open positions5
Markets (closed)368 / 375
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$1,267
Trades / day25.6
Drawdown89%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 368 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 91¢ 91¢ $910 $910 +$0 (+0%)
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? No 56¢ 67¢ $221 $265 +$44 (+20%)
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 58¢ 57¢ $150 $149 −$1 (-1%)
Will any FaZe member come out as a furry by July 31? Yes 12¢ 6¢ $17 $8 −$9 (-54%)
Kanye blocked from entering another country by June 30? Yes 21¢ 4¢ $42 $7 −$35 (-83%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? Jun 18 $1,201 +$48 +4%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 17 $606 −$307 -51%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 17 $10,785 +$877 +8%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 13? Jun 14 $901 +$49 +6%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 15? Jun 14 $600 +$47 +8%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $610 +$38 +6%
Will Iran close its airspace by June 14? Jun 14 $1,888 −$511 -27%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $145 +$30 +20%
Will US announce location or date of US and Iran deal signing by June Jun 13 $948 +$52 +6%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026? Jun 13 $232 +$121 +52%
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from June 5 to June Jun 12 $81 −$81 -100%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $224 −$14 -6%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 12 $21 −$21 -100%
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $66 −$19 -29%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $28 +$30 +105%
Will Trump restart Project Freedom by June 30? Jun 11 $1,040 +$209 +20%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 10 $1,476 +$7 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 10 $7,323 −$4 -0%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 30? Jun 10 $161 +$6 +4%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $192 +$57 +30%
Equatorial Guinea vs. Comoros: O/U 0.5 Jun 08 $79 +$37 +47%
Spread: Syria (-1.5) Jun 08 $136 +$64 +47%
Spread: Bahrain (-2.5) Jun 08 $148 +$52 +35%
Denmark vs. Ukraine: O/U 4.5 Jun 08 $50 +$1 +2%
Will Denmark win on 2026-06-07? Jun 08 $119 +$81 +67%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 07 $6,629 +$369 +6%
Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase June 2-8? Jun 07 $453 +$33 +7%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 07 $84 +$18 +21%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $195 −$50 -26%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 07 $90 +$10 +11%
Counter-Strike: Virtus.pro vs GenOne (BO3) - European Pro League Serie Jun 07 $457 +$204 +45%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $26 −$26 -99%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs B8 (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 2 Jun 06 $195 +$105 +54%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 6? Jun 05 $79 −$15 -19%
Will a province schedule a referendum to leave Canada before 2027? Jun 05 $22 +$4 +17%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 05 $1,851 −$558 -30%
Will xQc beat Forsen's Minecraft speedrun record by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $79 −$79 -100%
Will Donald Trump dance on May 25, 2026? Jun 04 $222 −$144 -65%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 04 $205 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,313 +$525 +10%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Marjorie Taylor Greene by May 31, 20 Jun 02 $929 +$245 +26%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $486 +$188 +39%
Will White House post 160-179 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $7 −$4 -52%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 26 to June 2, 2026? Jun 01 $6 −$3 -44%
Will Trump say "Nuke" in May? Jun 01 $47 −$44 -94%
GPT-5.6 released by July 31, 2026? Jun 01 $188 +$41 +22%
US x Cuba diplomatic meeting by May 31? Jun 01 $1,167 +$330 +28%
Will White House post 140-159 posts from May 19 to May 26, 2026? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $450 in May? May 30 $16 −$16 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY No 91¢ $910 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? SELL Yes 8¢ $59 3m
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 30¢ $100 1h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $13 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $48 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $96 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $15 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $5 3h
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? BUY Yes 48¢ $7 3h
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,249 34h
Will Cape Verde advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World BUY No 58¢ $152 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 16¢ $78 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 38¢ $38 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 44¢ $176 2d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult someone on June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 96¢ $1,201 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $1,603 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 31¢ $96 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 28¢ $53 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? SELL Yes 29¢ $72 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 31¢ $78 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 57¢ $57 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 63¢ $63 2d
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 65¢ $195 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 99¢ $745 3d
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Benjamin Netanyahu by June 30, 2026? BUY No 46¢ $44 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $508 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 82¢ $247 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 77¢ $386 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,339.02 · official $1,339.02 (match) · 3500 history records