Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T23:48:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc986…1654 sports 362 markets active 1h ago coverage 100d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$328 (-7%) realized −$326 · open −$2
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate42%149W / 208L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day4.4pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$456now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$265
7 days+$269
14 days+$117
30 days+$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 51% −$206
other 48% −$189
world 1% −$6
crypto 0% +$10
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +8.0% -2.3% 61% 50% +56.1%
≤30d 113 -15.0% -23.1% 47% 44% -5.2%
≤90d 356 -15.2% -23.3% 42% 41% -17.3%
all 357 -15.2% -23.2% 42% 41% -17.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.2% 41% -17.3%
10% -30.6% 39% -25.2%
15% -37.3% 37% -32.4%
20% -43.4% 32% -39.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 12% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
3% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -46% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$14 vs −$12 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

100d coverage
Net worth$456
Realized−$326
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses149 / 208
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions5
Markets (closed)357 / 362
History coverage100d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day4.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 357 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 54¢ 55¢ $175 $178 +$3 (+2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $168 $166 −$2 (-1%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 61¢ 58¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+1%)
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Yes 51¢ 52¢ $8 $8 +$0 (+3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 57 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $161 +$243 +151%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$6 +55%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $20 +$2 +10%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $15 +$3 +20%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $15 +$20 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $10 +$1 +5%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? Jun 22 $10 +$6 +60%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +48%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $10 −$6 -59%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$8 -80%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 −$1 -10%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $28 +$13 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $15 +$10 +67%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $10 +$10 +97%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $10 −$10 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +90%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $10 +$9 +93%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $15 −$15 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $10 +$10 +101%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Spread: CD Universidad Católica (-1.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -99%
Spread: Germany (-3.5) Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $15 +$12 +79%
Haiti vs. Scotland: O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
CD Ñublense vs. CD Huachipato: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $15 +$13 +89%
CSD Colo-Colo vs. CD Cobresal: O/U 4.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Brazil vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $14 −$14 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $15 −$15 -99%
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $15 −$15 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $20 +$7 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $15 +$1 +8%
Saudi Arabia vs. Senegal: O/U 3.5 Jun 10 $28 +$9 +31%
Spread: Senegal (-1.5) Jun 10 $16 +$7 +46%
Iraq vs. Venezuela: Iraq O/U 1.5 Jun 10 $6 −$6 -99%
Will Clube Náutico Capibaribe win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $31 −$30 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 09 $9 +$5 +60%
Will CD Castellón win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 −$15 -99%
Will Chile win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $15 +$10 +65%
Spread: Azerbaijan (-2.5) Jun 09 $15 +$8 +55%
Will Wales win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $2 +$1 +38%
Spread: Hungary (-2.5) Jun 09 $15 +$7 +44%
Spread: England (-2.5) Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 61¢ $101 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 51¢ $50 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 1h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $152 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 54¢ $152 1h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $51 5h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $153 5h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 91¢ $20 23h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $8 24h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $3 30h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $15 30h
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $8 44h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $5 44h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 52¢ $10 44h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 41¢ $8 44h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 44h
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 81¢ $10 44h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 83¢ $15 44h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 95¢ $10 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 42¢ $15 2d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 71¢ $5 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 62¢ $10 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 35¢ $4 3d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 13¢ $2 3d
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 76¢ $10 4d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $10 4d
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $10 4d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 84¢ $10 4d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 57¢ $9 4d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $18 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $456.23 · official $456.23 (match) · 746 history records