Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T09:02:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
C9 0xc984…237d other 16 markets active 1h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable! high turnover
Total PnL +$51 (+27%) realized +$54 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR70%break-even
Win rate70%7W / 3L
Drawdown11%max
Avg bet$12per market
Trades / day29.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit19%portable
Net worth$116now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 61% +$24
sports 39% +$22
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +70%
net ROI/market (all)+31.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +45.5% +31.7% 70% 70% +54.0%
≤30d 10 +45.5% +31.7% 70% 70% +54.0%
≤90d 10 +45.5% +31.7% 70% 70% +54.0%
all 10 +45.5% +31.7% 70% 70% +54.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover29.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +31.7% 70% +54.0%
10% ← realistic here +19.1% 70% +39.2%
15% +7.6% 70% +25.8%
20% -3.0% 60% +13.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 29% · top 2 53% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +70% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +46% · $-wt +70% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$3 · ×2.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×6.02 per $1 lost it wins $6.02
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$116
Realized+$54
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses7 / 3
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions6
Markets (closed)10 / 16
History coverage1d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day29.0
Drawdown11%
Kalshi-fit19%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 10 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Yes 76¢ 76¢ $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Over 54¢ 54¢ $45 $45 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-6%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $10 $9 −$1 (-14%)
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 17¢ 16¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-3%)
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? Yes 6¢ 6¢ $2 $2 −$0 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $15 +$14 +93%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $8 +$11 +134%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$1 -38%
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $3 +$1 +46%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $10 +$17 +174%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $14 +$8 +55%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $3 +$3 +105%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $5 +$4 +87%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? Jun 17 $6 −$6 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 3 - 1 DR Congo? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $20 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Portugal 2 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 17¢ $2 2h
Exact Score: Portugal 0 - 0 DR Congo? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $25 2h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 3h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? SELL Yes 13¢ $2 4h
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 20¢ $3 4h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 0 Jordan? BUY Yes 16¢ $3 5h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 5h
Exact Score: Austria 2 - 1 Jordan? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? SELL Yes 13¢ $6 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 28¢ $3 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 38¢ $9 6h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 23¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 14¢ $3 7h
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 64¢ $14 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 1 Algeria? BUY Yes 6¢ $3 7h
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 8¢ $4 7h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $3 11h
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $116.04 · official $116.04 (match) · 33 history records