Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T20:10:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc97c…669b other 11 markets active 1h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$43 (-37%) realized −$39 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -69% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -73% what you keep after slip
Net edge-73%after slip
Net WR22%break-even
Win rate22%2W / 7L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day4.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit27%portable
Net worth$26now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 62% −$41
sports 38% −$15
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-72.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -69.4% -72.3% 22% 22% -70.5%
≤30d 9 -69.4% -72.3% 22% 22% -70.5%
≤90d 9 -69.4% -72.3% 22% 22% -70.5%
all 9 -69.4% -72.3% 22% 22% -70.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.2 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -72.3% 22% -70.5%
10% -74.9% 11% -73.3%
15% -77.4% 11% -75.9%
20% -79.6% 11% -78.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 89% · top 2 100% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -80% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -69% · $-wt -80% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.11 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$26
Realized−$39
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses2 / 7
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)9 / 11
History coverage4d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day4.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit27%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $15 $15 −$0 (-1%)
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Yes 66¢ 48¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-28%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $10 +$6 +58%
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca Jun 15 $12 −$12 -99%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $12 −$12 -99%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $22 −$8 -37%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $4 +$1 +18%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 −$2 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $15 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 24h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $10 24h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $16 26h
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 63¢ $10 26h
UFC Freedom 250: Justin Gaethje vs. Ilia Topuria (Lightweight, Main Ca BUY Ilia Topuria 80¢ $12 39h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $12 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 99¢ $19 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 100¢ $5 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 95¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 15¢ $2 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 57¢ $10 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 79¢ $10 2d
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 84¢ $4 2d
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 24¢ $3 4d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 54¢ $2 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $25.69 · official $25.69 (match) · 17 history records