Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc978…aa84 world 196 markets active 0h ago coverage 152d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable ⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$8,509 (+2%) realized +$7,638 · open +$871
Gross ROI / mkt +13% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR14%break-even
Win rate88%145W / 20L
Whale WR83%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,962per market
Trades / day15.4pace
Fees−$30est.
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$46,367now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 152d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 65% +$9,127
politics 15% −$1,553
other 13% +$2,484
economics 4% +$611
sports 4% +$1,153
crypto 0% +$1
culture 0% −$9
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +14%
net ROI/market (all)+2.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +5.6% -4.5% 92% 15% -5.3%
≤30d 31 +28.2% +16.0% 90% 19% -9.8%
≤90d 120 +6.9% -3.2% 89% 12% -7.4%
all 165 +13.2% +2.5% 88% 14% -6.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover15.4 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +2.5% 14% -6.5%
10% ← realistic here -7.3% 7% -15.5%
15% -16.3% 5% -23.6%
20% -24.5% 4% -31.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 15% · top 2 29% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +13% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 83% (≥$1,690) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +16% → late +10% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
9.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$131 vs −$405 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×2.35 per $1 lost it wins $2.35
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

152d coverage
Net worth$46,367
Realized+$7,638
Unrealized+$871
Win rate (resolved)88%
Wins / losses145 / 20
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$30
Open positions37
Markets (closed)165 / 196
History coverage152d
Avg bet$1,962
Trades / day15.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 37 History 165 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $12,114 $12,255 +$142 (+1%)
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? Yes 84¢ 81¢ $11,144 $10,869 −$275 (-2%)
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 88¢ 100¢ $5,900 $6,702 +$802 (+14%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? No 85¢ 92¢ $3,445 $3,700 +$255 (+7%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 98¢ 97¢ $2,876 $2,849 −$27 (-1%)
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? No 88¢ 85¢ $1,444 $1,395 −$49 (-3%)
Iran leadership change by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1,194 $1,206 +$12 (+1%)
Will Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026? No 93¢ 100¢ $1,092 $1,171 +$79 (+7%)
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Yes 83¢ 86¢ $862 $887 +$26 (+3%)
Will the Democrats win the Maine Senate race in 2026? Yes 71¢ 62¢ $914 $800 −$114 (-12%)
Netanyahu out by June 30? No 96¢ 99¢ $730 $751 +$21 (+3%)
Will Xavier Becerra win the California Governor Election in 2026? Yes 70¢ 89¢ $507 $643 +$136 (+27%)
Masoud Pezeshkian out by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $623 $627 +$4 (+1%)
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Yes 16¢ $0 $476 +$476 (+0%)
Delcy Rodríguez out as leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026? No 74¢ 90¢ $359 $441 +$82 (+23%)
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Yes 93¢ 93¢ $388 $388 −$0 (-0%)
Kash Patel out by December 31? Yes 79¢ 52¢ $468 $304 −$164 (-35%)
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by June 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $253 $254 +$1 (+1%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 94¢ 94¢ $219 $219 +$0 (+0%)
Will ACA premium tax credits not be extended and will the Democratic Party win the House in 2026? Yes 80¢ $0 $83 +$83 (+0%)
State of Siege declared in Chile by June 30? No 91¢ 100¢ $47 $51 +$5 (+10%)
Will François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election? Yes $95 $47 −$48 (-50%)
US recognizes Reza Pahlavi as leader of Iran in 2026? No 73¢ 96¢ $35 $46 +$11 (+31%)
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Yes 41¢ 16¢ $95 $36 −$59 (-62%)
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Yes $85 $29 −$56 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 19, 2026? Jun 18 $464 +$7 +2%
Will the US-Iran deal be physically signed by June 30? Jun 18 $367 +$4 +1%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $568 +$4 +1%
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Jun 18 $661 +$20 +3%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 30, 2026? Jun 18 $268 −$35 -13%
Will Trump physically sign US x Iran deal? Jun 18 $542 +$26 +5%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 18 $16 $0 +2%
Will Jared Hudson be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $80 +$5 +7%
Will Barry Moore be the Republican nominee for Senate in Alabama? Jun 17 $496 +$35 +7%
Trump announces US x Iran ceasefire over by June 15? Jun 17 $955 +$40 +4%
Israel closes its airspace by June 15? Jun 17 $1,404 +$38 +3%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by July 31? Jun 15 $584 +$121 +21%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 15 $115 +$36 +31%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 12? Jun 12 $681 −$6 -1%
Will Steve Hilton advance from the 2026 California Governor primary el Jun 10 $587 +$13 +2%
Will Tom Steyer advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elec Jun 10 $649 +$10 +2%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 08 $79 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 08 $499 +$291 +58%
Will Xavier Becerra advance from the 2026 California Governor primary Jun 06 $171 +$9 +5%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? Jun 06 $416 +$154 +37%
Will Chad Bianco win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 04 $948 +$18 +2%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $21 +$2 +11%
Will Matt Mahan win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $1,395 +$47 +3%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 24? Jun 02 $1,164 +$115 +10%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $8,436 +$224 +3%
Ruben Rocha out as Governor of Sinaloa by May 31? Jun 01 $11 +$83 +750%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $6,278 +$96 +2%
Iran closes its airspace by May 24? May 28 $1,690 −$1,690 -100%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 28 $2,138 +$134 +6%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 22, 2026? May 23 $1,469 +$113 +8%
Will Brad Raffensperger win the 2026 Georgia Governor Republican prima May 22 $83 +$2 +2%
Starmer out by May 19, 2026? May 20 $1,499 +$109 +7%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 20 $1,288 −$1,288 -100%
Starmer out by June 30, 2026? May 20 $468 −$40 -9%
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? May 18 $304 +$85 +28%
Will Romania win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $2,472 +$52 +2%
Will David Farley win the by-election for the seat of Farrer in the Au May 16 $397 +$63 +16%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2026 Ohio Governor Republican primary ele May 16 $539 +$14 +3%
Starmer out by May 15, 2026? May 16 $7,674 +$630 +8%
Trump renames Strait of Hormuz to "Strait of Trump" by May 31? May 13 $226 +$3 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 13 $2,825 +$9 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? May 13 $920 +$54 +6%
US-Iran nuclear deal by April 30? May 02 $4,124 −$694 -17%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? May 02 $234 +$6 +3%
Netanyahu out by April 30? May 02 $257 +$14 +5%
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by April 30, 2026? May 02 $348 +$9 +2%
SAVE Act becomes law by April 30, 2026? May 02 $2,410 +$160 +7%
Foreign intervention in Gaza by April 30? May 02 $2,854 +$14 +0%
Will US withdraw from NATO by April 30? May 02 $2,982 +$63 +2%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? May 02 $7,188 +$246 +3%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $925 22m
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 92¢ $1,776 1h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 94¢ $310 1h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $87 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $151 6h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $6 6h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $46 6h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $58 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 81¢ $331 7h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $19 7h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 7h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 90¢ $5 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $7 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $197 7h
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 85¢ $392 7h
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY Yes 94¢ $219 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $122 7h
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm ele BUY Yes 82¢ $1,233 7h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $5 8h
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? BUY Yes 89¢ $5 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $87 13h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $5 16h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $9 17h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $479 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $114 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $368 25h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $802 32h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $205 34h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $46,366.55 · official $46,367.89 (match) · 2676 history records