Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T23:22:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
C9 0xc977…56f1 other 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,125 (+30%) realized +$1,429 · open −$304
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +67% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +39% what you keep after slip
Net edge+39%after slip
Net WR32%break-even
Win rate34%14W / 27L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day14.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$493now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$748
7 days+$1,096
14 days+$1,096
30 days+$1,096
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 70% −$186
sports 26% +$1,028
crypto 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +32%
net ROI/market (all)+50.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +66.8% +50.9% 34% 32% +27.1%
≤30d 41 +66.8% +50.9% 34% 32% +27.1%
≤90d 41 +66.8% +50.9% 34% 32% +27.1%
all 41 +66.8% +50.9% 34% 32% +27.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +50.9% 32% +27.1%
10% +36.5% 32% +14.9%
15% +23.3% 32% +3.8%
20% +11.2% 32% -6.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 36% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +40% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +67% · $-wt +40% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +135% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$167 vs −$46 · ×3.64 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.89 per $1 lost it wins $1.89
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$493
Realized+$1,429
Unrealized−$304
Win rate (resolved)34%
Wins / losses14 / 27
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions5
Markets (closed)41 / 46
History coverage7d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day14.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 41 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Yes 49¢ 24¢ $481 $229 −$252 (-52%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $141 $151 +$10 (+7%)
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $102 $92 −$10 (-10%)
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists Yes 22¢ 10¢ $47 $21 −$26 (-55%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? Yes 15¢ 0¢ $26 $0 −$25 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 19 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? Jun 15 $42 −$4 -9%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? Jun 15 $49 −$8 -16%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $113 −$15 -13%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $162 −$158 -98%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $50 +$50 +101%
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? Jun 15 $30 −$29 -97%
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals Jun 15 $49 −$48 -98%
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $78 −$77 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $21 −$20 -97%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $146 −$144 -98%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $152 +$110 +72%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $26 −$17 -65%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 15 $50 −$49 -97%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$30 -97%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 0 Ecuador? Jun 15 $50 +$269 +534%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $218 +$494 +227%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $141 −$50 -36%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $144 −$141 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $81 +$189 +234%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $114 +$92 +81%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Neither team to score first? Jun 14 $30 −$8 -26%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -97%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $40 +$351 +875%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $101 −$6 -6%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $50 $0 +0%
Will Haiti vs. Scotland end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 −$39 -98%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $55 −$36 -65%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $70 +$131 +186%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $173 −$83 -48%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Both Teams to Score Jun 13 $234 +$134 +57%
Brahim Díaz: 1+ goals Jun 13 $30 −$29 -98%
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 2 Morocco? Jun 13 $30 −$29 -97%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $19 +$316 +1705%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $38 −$30 -78%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $52 +$53 +102%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? Jun 12 $23 −$22 -98%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $10 +$67 +650%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Czechia O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $10 −$8 -74%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $84 +$79 +94%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $102 −$100 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 25¢ $50 32m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 26¢ $50 35m
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $38 1h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? SELL Yes 22¢ $38 1h
Saudi Arabia to score first vs. Uruguay? BUY Yes 23¢ $42 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? SELL Yes 8¢ $41 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $52 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $98 1h
Federico Valverde: 1+ assists BUY Yes 22¢ $48 1h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 65¢ $199 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 11¢ $98 1h
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: Neither team to score first? BUY Yes 9¢ $49 1h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $50 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 12¢ $63 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 1¢ $10 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $8 2h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $18 2h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 15¢ $72 2h
Exact Score: Belgium 1 - 2 Egypt? BUY Yes 5¢ $30 5h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $50 5h
Omar Marmoush: 1+ goals BUY Yes 20¢ $49 5h
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 14¢ $80 5h
Exact Score: Spain 2 - 0 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $21 5h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 36¢ $78 5h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 2¢ $21 8h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 45¢ $146 9h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 91¢ $262 20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 7¢ $9 20h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $26 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $492.90 · official $493.61 (match) · 113 history records