Wallet analysis

2026-06-19T13:16:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
C9 0xc976…fa59 politics 45 markets active 2h ago coverage 318d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$20 (+1%) realized +$20 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate36%16W / 29L
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$0
30 days+$2
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$2
other 19% +$12
politics 19% +$4
sports 7% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 3% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 3% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-8.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +0.1% -9.5% 50% 0% -9.3%
≤30d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 15 -0.1% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.4%
all 45 +1.6% -8.1% 36% 4% -8.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.1% 4% -8.4%
10% -16.9% 4% -17.1%
15% -24.9% 2% -25.1%
20% -32.3% 0% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 54% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
88% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +2% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×6.86 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×9.15 per $1 lost it wins $9.15
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

318d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)36%
Wins / losses16 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)45 / 45
History coverage318d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 45 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 19 $94 $0 +0%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $55 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 18 $11 $0 -1%
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? Jun 18 $76 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $2 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $131 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 06 $3 $0 -10%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $114 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 31 $79 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 31 $76 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 30 $52 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $9 +$1 +7%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? May 28 $61 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 27 $75 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 26 $76 +$2 +3%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 16 $19 $0 +2%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Dec 11 $52 +$12 +24%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Nov 19 $48 $0 -1%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in 2025? Nov 14 $5 $0 +4%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Oct 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $47 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model on October 31? Oct 23 $48 $0 +0%
Will Rodrigo Paz win the 2025 Bolivia presidential election? Oct 22 $8 +$3 +37%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 12 $39 +$2 +6%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ahmed al-Sharaa be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 23 $8 $0 -0%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 +2%
Will Trump acquire Greenland in 2025? Aug 19 $5 $0 -4%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 18 $20 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in 2025? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will 'Wicked: For Good' have the best domestic opening weekend in 2025 Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Will the New York Mets win the 2025 World Series? Aug 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Daniel Baluta be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 10 $24 $0 -0%
Will Robert F. Kennedy Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomina Aug 10 $24 $0 +0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Aug 07 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 06 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 06 $24 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 05 $11 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 05 $11 $0 -0%
Will Nuno Mendes win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 05 $54 $0 +0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 05 $6 $0 +0%
Will Atalanta win the 2025–26 Champions League? Aug 05 $58 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $40 2h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $34 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 92¢ $3 4h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $31 8h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 92¢ $45 8h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $17 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $39 19h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $32 22h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 87¢ $22 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $7 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $4 23h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $2 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $6 26h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 26h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $46 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $1 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? SELL No 94¢ $29 33h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $30 35h
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? BUY No 94¢ $46 35h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $4 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $3 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $5 39h
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $18 42h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $2 11d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 11d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $3 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $21 12d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 62¢ $53 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 160 history records