Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T15:29:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
C9 0xc975…73ad world 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 309d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$37 (+4%) realized +$37 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate46%17W / 20L
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$22per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 43% +$6
politics 24% +$1
other 14% +$25
culture 11% +$6
crypto 6% −$1
tech 1% $0
sports 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -1.0% -10.4% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 6 -2.5% -11.8% 33% 0% -10.0%
≤90d 12 -3.7% -12.9% 25% 8% -7.9%
all 37 +0.1% -9.4% 46% 8% -5.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.4% 8% -5.4%
10% -18.1% 3% -14.4%
15% -26.0% 3% -22.7%
20% -33.2% 3% -30.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 52% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$1 · ×3.97 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×5.19 per $1 lost it wins $5.19
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

309d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$37
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses17 / 20
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage309d
Avg bet$22
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? No 98¢ 98¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 24 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 23 $27 −$1 -4%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 23 $16 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? May 26 $5 −$1 -10%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 26 $52 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 26 $23 $0 -2%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 25 $4 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $16 −$4 -22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 23 $64 +$13 +20%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 22 $5 $0 -2%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 21 $7 −$2 -23%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 21 $1 $0 +0%
Will Lilo & Stitch be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 16 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 12 $5 $0 +4%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Dec 12 $29 +$1 +3%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Dec 12 $38 +$24 +64%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 Democratic presidential no Nov 19 $41 $0 +1%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 14 $4 $0 -5%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 23 $44 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in October? Oct 23 $1 $0 +1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in October? Oct 23 $3 $0 -17%
Will Bitcoin reach $135k in October? Oct 23 $6 $0 -6%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Oct 11 $43 +$6 +15%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Aug 26 $5 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Aug 26 $4 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 21 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2025 World Series? Aug 21 $5 $0 +0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 21 $43 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Aug 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Aug 20 $36 $0 +0%
Will Mohamed Salah win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Aug 20 $35 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia Phillies win the 2025 World Series? Aug 20 $2 $0 -15%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 20 $2 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by August 31? Aug 20 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump deport 750,000-1,000,000 people? Aug 20 $41 $0 -0%
Will XRP dip to $1.50 in August? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $42 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $35 1h
Will China invade Taiwan by September 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $9 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $24 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $37 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 87¢ $15 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $7 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $69 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $6 18h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $9 23h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $2 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $14 26h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 8¢ $16 28h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $1 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $2 31h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $18 34h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $4 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 24¢ $15 36h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 24¢ $19 40h
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $3 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 4¢ $2 28d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $5 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 97¢ $52 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $44 29d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 97¢ $8 29d
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? SELL Yes 28¢ $20 29d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $43.92 · official $43.92 (match) · 180 history records