Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:20:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
C9 0xc975…2c68 politics 681 markets active 0h ago coverage 141d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 140d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$20,287 (+6%) realized +$20,121 · open +$166
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR12%break-even
Win rate68%449W / 212L
Whale WR90%big bets
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$535per market
Trades / day20.6pace
Fees−$17est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$1,156now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 141d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% +$3,040
world 28% +$336
other 16% +$471
crypto 6% +$242
sports 5% +$149
tech 3% +$113
finance 3% +$60
economics 2% +$3
weather 0% −$20
culture 0% +$29
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +12%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 24 +9.4% -1.0% 92% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 170 -1.9% -11.3% 69% 9% -7.8%
≤90d 493 -1.6% -10.9% 64% 10% -9.3%
all 661 -0.3% -9.8% 68% 12% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover20.6 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.8% 12% -8.5%
10% -18.5% 8% -17.2%
15% ← realistic here -26.3% 7% -25.2%
20% -33.6% 5% -32.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
81% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 90% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +7% → late -8% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$21 vs −$25 · ×0.83 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.82 per $1 lost it wins $1.82
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

141d coverage
Net worth$1,156
Realized+$20,121
Unrealized+$166
Win rate (resolved)68%
Wins / losses449 / 212
Whale WR (big bets)90%
Est. fees paid−$17
Open positions20
Markets (closed)661 / 681
History coverage141d ⚠
Avg bet$535
Trades / day20.6
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 20 History 661 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? No 98¢ 98¢ $188 $187 −$1 (-0%)
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 99¢ 98¢ $156 $154 −$2 (-1%)
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? No 98¢ 98¢ $124 $123 −$1 (-1%)
Will the announcers say "Pounce" during UFC 250? No 98¢ 98¢ $99 $99 −$0 (-0%)
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 99¢ 98¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podcast? Yes 0¢ 12¢ $1 $94 +$93 (+12400%)
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? No 98¢ 98¢ $90 $90 +$0 (+0%)
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of the week of June 15? Yes 0¢ 10¢ $1 $74 +$74 (+9800%)
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? No 99¢ 98¢ $59 $58 −$1 (-1%)
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? Yes 50¢ 33¢ $69 $46 −$24 (-34%)
Will Trump say "Gay" in June? No 27¢ 46¢ $21 $36 +$15 (+69%)
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Conference? No 100¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during UFC 250? No 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian general elections? Yes 40¢ 62¢ $10 $16 +$6 (+56%)
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $10 +$9 (+1200%)
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Conference? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+450%)
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $4 +$3 (+400%)
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $3 +$3 (+350%)
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $1 +$1 (+250%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 13¢ 1¢ $11 $1 −$11 (-95%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? Jun 17 $50 $0 -0%
Will Trump say "Peanut" this week? Jun 17 $13 +$5 +36%
Will Trump say "Uranium" this week? Jun 17 $14 +$6 +42%
Will Trump say "NATO" this week? Jun 16 $60 +$18 +29%
Will Trump say "Make America Great Again" this week? Jun 16 $80 +$36 +45%
Will the announcers say "Goal" 20+ times during the USA vs Paraguay FI Jun 13 $80 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Pressure" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wor Jun 13 $100 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Mexico" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $570 +$1 +0%
Will the announcers say "Canada" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA World Jun 13 $55 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "Dangerous" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Wo Jun 13 $84 $0 +0%
Will the announcers say "History" during the USA vs Paraguay FIFA Worl Jun 13 $75 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Star" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $5 $0 +10%
Will Trump say "Migrant Crime" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $48 +$15 +32%
Will Trump say "College" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $30 +$10 +34%
Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $115 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Hell" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Border" 5+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Radical Left" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $30 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Iran" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $120 +$1 +1%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $79 +$4 +4%
Will Trump say "America First" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Get Out And Vote" during Tele-Rallies? Jun 12 $50 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 12 $5,409 +$19 +0%
Will Trump say "Georgia" 10+ times during Tele-Rallies? Jun 11 $4 $0 -10%
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 15, 2026? Jun 09 $287 $0 +0%
Will John Ternus say "Excited" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on Jun Jun 09 $6 $0 +8%
Will John Ternus say "Developer" during the Apple WWDC 2026 event on J Jun 09 $482 +$7 +2%
Will Trump say "Dumocrat" or "Dumbocrat" or "Dumacrat" during Tele-Ral Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Fraud" or "Scam" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Los Angeles" or "LA" during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $22 −$1 -5%
Will Trump say "Job" 2+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "State" 5+ times during Tele-Rally? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 08 $13,504 +$25 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 07 $201 +$1 +0%
Who will finish higher: Perez or Bottas? Jun 07 $0 $0 -100%
Will Kimi Antonelli win the 2026 F1 Monaco Grand Prix? Jun 07 $48 −$15 -31%
Will MrBeast say "Chocolate" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Karl" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Survive" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Hunt" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Lose" or "Loser" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Win" or "Winner" during his next gaming YouTube vide Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast say "Chase" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $1 −$1 -100%
Will MrBeast's next video get 64 million or more views in week 1? Jun 06 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Trump praise Vladimir Putin by June 30? Jun 06 $927 +$72 +8%
Will MrBeast say "Chandler" during his next gaming YouTube video? Jun 06 $597 +$1 +0%
Will Trump say "Hell" 7+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 06 $88 $0 +0%
Will Trump say "Hottest Nation" this week? Jun 06 $133 −$33 -25%
Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $135 +$2 +1%
Will Trump say "Percent" 13+ times during Wisconsin events? Jun 05 $1,338 +$13 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1m
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $85 7m
Will Warsh say "All-Time High" or "All-Time Low" during June Press Con BUY No 100¢ $30 20m
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 39m
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? SELL No 100¢ $50 41m
Will "Siri" be said during the next episode of the Lemonade Stand Podc BUY Yes 0¢ $1 41m
Will Warsh say "Downside" during June Press Conference? BUY No 100¢ $50 45m
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 49m
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 50m
Will Warsh say "I Don't Know" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 51m
Will Warsh say "Groupthink" or "Group Think" during June Press Confere BUY Yes 0¢ $1 56m
Will Warsh say "Asymmetric" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 57m
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY No 98¢ $19 1h
Will Warsh say "Job Market" during June Press Conference? BUY No 99¢ $84 1h
Will Warsh say "Predecessor" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will Warsh say "Goods Inflation" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 0¢ $0 1h
Will Trump say “Dana” or “White” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $59 1h
Will Trump say “Crazy” or “Amazing” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $98 1h
Will Trump say “Thank You” 5+ times during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $156 1h
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will Trump say "Incredible" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $94 1h
Will "Dude" be said 20+ times during the first Joe Rogan Experience of BUY Yes 0¢ $1 1h
Will the announcers say "Pounce" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $99 1h
Will the announcers say "Butterfly" during UFC 250? BUY No 99¢ $30 1h
Will the announcers say "Guillotine" during UFC 250? BUY No 98¢ $90 1h
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? BUY Yes 46¢ $4 2d
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? BUY Yes 48¢ $39 2d
Italy Senate approves Nuclear Power Bill by August 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $27 3d
Will Futuro Nazionale get more votes than Lega in the next Italian gen BUY Yes 40¢ $10 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,156.28 · official $1,156.28 (match) · 3500 history records