Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:23:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc974…eb16
other · 111 markets active 8h ago
0.0score
−$887 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$351 · open −$771
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP Fading edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$11,493
Realized−$351
Unrealized−$771
Win rate (resolved)69%
Wins / losses66 / 29
Whale WR (big bets)83%
Est. fees paid−$100
Open positions21
Markets (closed)95 / 111
Avg bet$1,611
Trades / day69.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit20%
Chart Positions 21 History 95 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$388
7 days−$371
14 days+$12
30 days−$882
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 16¢ $3,540 $3,210 −$330 (-9%)
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? No 98¢ 98¢ $1,946 $1,961 +$15 (+1%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 17¢ $1,502 $1,525 +$22 (+1%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 11¢ $712 $829 +$116 (+16%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 10¢ $840 $784 −$56 (-7%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 9¢ $637 $664 +$26 (+4%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 9¢ $698 $656 −$42 (-6%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 5¢ 5¢ $386 $389 +$4 (+1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $700B by December 31? No 86¢ 62¢ $430 $312 −$118 (-27%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by December 31? No 85¢ 50¢ $425 $252 −$172 (-41%)
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Yes 81¢ 100¢ $162 $200 +$38 (+23%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 65¢ 96¢ $130 $192 +$62 (+48%)
Will a coin launched in 2026 end the year in the top 50? Yes 77¢ 76¢ $154 $152 −$2 (-1%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $800B by December 31? No 85¢ 30¢ $425 $148 −$278 (-65%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? No 77¢ 97¢ $77 $97 +$20 (+26%)
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (LOW) $750B by June 30? No 94¢ 83¢ $94 $83 −$11 (-12%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $300B by December 31? No 90¢ 90¢ $18 $18 +$0 (+0%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $160B by December 31? No 80¢ 51¢ $16 $10 −$6 (-36%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $170B by December 31? No 85¢ 43¢ $16 $8 −$8 (-49%)
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $160B by December 31? No 52¢ 6¢ $10 $1 −$9 (-89%)
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? Yes 10¢ 1¢ $5 $1 −$4 (-88%)
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026? Yes 8¢ 4¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-56%)
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Yes 13¢ 0¢ $39 $0 −$39 (-100%)
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? No 7¢ 0¢ $176 $0 −$176 (-100%)
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Yes 4¢ 0¢ $253 $0 −$253 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $39 −$39 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026? Jun 12 $176 −$176 -100%
Will GPT-5.5 not be released by April 30, 2026? Jun 12 $253 −$263 -104%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 12 $850 +$90 +11%
Will Claude Mythos be released on or prior to June 9? Jun 09 $162 +$38 +24%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 mee Jun 08 $600 −$20 -3%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me Jun 06 $380 $0 -0%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 04 $5,970 +$278 +5%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Jun 01 $270 +$30 +11%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $102 +$75 +73%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (LOW) $165B by June 30? May 28 $16 −$6 -39%
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $180B by December 31? May 27 $28 +$1 +3%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $250B by June 30? May 27 $2 $0 -23%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 85% by June 30? May 27 $161 +$12 +7%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $680 +$20 +3%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? May 24 $176 −$16 -9%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $15B by December 31? May 22 $14 $0 +1%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.25T by December 31? May 21 $32 −$14 -45%
Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.1T by December 31? May 21 $11 −$8 -69%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $8B by December 31? May 21 $1 $0 +4%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 200,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 21 $281 +$69 +25%
Will Figure's F.03 robots push at least 250,000 packages by 10:00 PM o May 20 $74 −$34 -46%
Will OpenAI's valuation hit (HIGH) $900B by December 31? May 20 $332 $0 +0%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (LOW) $9B by December 31? May 19 $14 $0 +1%
Will Stripe's valuation hit (HIGH) $210B by June 30? May 19 $4 +$1 +25%
Will Kraken's valuation hit (HIGH) $25B by December 31? May 19 $215 +$2 +1%
Will Epic Games' valuation hit (HIGH) $30B by December 31? May 19 $4 $0 -0%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run for at least 200 hours without failure? May 18 $210 −$150 -72%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 50 and 100 hours without failure May 18 $2,016 +$65 +3%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 100 and 200 hours without failur May 18 $6,836 +$25 +0%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 25 and 30 million views on day 1 May 18 $2,055 +$77 +4%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 30 and 35 million views on day 1 May 18 $6,145 −$1,029 -17%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 40 and 45 million views on day 1 May 17 $149 +$37 +25%
Will MrBeast hit 122.5 billion views by May 31? May 17 $182 +$18 +10%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 20 and 25 million views on day 1 May 17 $1,938 +$40 +2%
Will MrBeast's next video get 50 million or more views on day 1? May 17 $181 +$2 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 35 and 40 million views on day 1 May 16 $37 −$37 -100%
Will Figure's F.03 robots run between 8 and 50 hours without failure? May 16 $2,716 +$23 +1%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 15 $2,925 +$9 +0%
Will Polymarket mindshare hit 80% by June 30? May 14 $441 $0 -0%
Over $250M committed to the Printr public sale? May 13 $5 $0 +1%
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? May 11 $8,800 +$100 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 70 and 80 million views on week May 10 $178 +$22 +12%
Will MrBeast's next video get between 80 and 90 million views on week May 10 $1,249 +$472 +38%
Will MrBeast's next video get 90 million or more views on week 1? May 09 $731 −$400 -55%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 08 $68 −$6 -9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? May 07 $144 −$18 -13%
Will MrBeast's video get between 71 and 72 million views on day 4? May 07 $143 +$32 +22%
Will MrBeast's video get 70 million or more views on day 4? May 07 $172 +$28 +16%
Will MrBeast's video get between 73 and 74 million views on day 4? May 06 $477 +$6 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 74% −$674
world 13% +$175
crypto 4% +$269
sports 3% +$53
economics 3% +$79
politics 1% +$35
tech 1% −$579
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $146 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $1 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 8h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $10 11h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $2 11h
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? BUY No 98¢ $1,946 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $42 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me SELL Yes 0¢ $41 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $3 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 12h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $5 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 13h
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $34 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $15 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 13h
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $14 13h
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me BUY Yes 0¢ $4 19h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +22%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -38.5% -44.3% 29% 29% -22.8%
≤30d 40 -12.1% -20.5% 58% 18% -11.7%
≤90d 95 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 22% -9.7%
all 95 -2.7% -11.9% 69% 22% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover69.3 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.9% 22% -9.7%
10% -20.4% 13% -18.4%
15% ← realistic here -28.1% 7% -26.3%
20% -35.1% 5% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11,492.55 · official $11,492.54 (match) · 3500 history records