Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T04:17:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
C9 0xc972…4360 other 21 markets active 0h ago coverage 6d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$127 (+9%) realized +$193 · open −$66
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +29% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +12% what you keep after slip
Net edge+12%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate33%6W / 12L
Drawdown38%max
Avg bet$66per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit43%portable
Net worth$236now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 6d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 74% −$38
sports 21% +$189
politics 4% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)+16.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 18 +28.8% +16.6% 33% 33% +4.6%
≤30d 18 +28.8% +16.6% 33% 33% +4.6%
≤90d 18 +28.8% +16.6% 33% 33% +4.6%
all 18 +28.8% +16.6% 33% 33% +4.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +16.6% 33% +4.6%
10% +5.4% 33% -5.4%
15% -4.8% 28% -14.6%
20% -14.1% 28% -22.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 51% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +16% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +29% · $-wt +16% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +56% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$74 vs −$23 · ×3.2 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

6d coverage
Net worth$236
Realized+$193
Unrealized−$66
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses6 / 12
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions3
Markets (closed)18 / 21
History coverage6d
Avg bet$66
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown38%
Kalshi-fit43%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Yes 92¢ 92¢ $231 $230 −$1 (-1%)
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 8¢ 1¢ $57 $7 −$50 (-88%)
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $15 $0 −$15 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 9 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $451 −$36 -8%
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? Jun 15 $31 −$26 -84%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $151 +$107 +71%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $15 +$68 +442%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $26 −$25 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $51 −$2 -4%
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? Jun 14 $15 −$15 -98%
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? Jun 14 $20 +$56 +272%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $41 −$40 -98%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $21 +$122 +596%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $21 −$20 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $76 +$83 +109%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $40 +$10 +25%
Will Mexico vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 92¢ $232 4m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 100¢ $210 14m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? SELL Yes 4¢ $5 54m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 95¢ $200 56m
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $15 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 75¢ $204 1h
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 91¢ $251 1h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 21¢ $5 3h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $20 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? SELL Yes 96¢ $258 6h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 87¢ $110 6h
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $5 21h
Will Tunisia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 23¢ $10 22h
Will Sweden vs. Tunisia end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $15 22h
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 33¢ $20 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $26 22h
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $41 22h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 56¢ $48 24h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 57¢ $51 24h
Will Haiti win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 21¢ $51 26h
Will Australia vs. Türkiye end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $15 27h
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $15 27h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? SELL Yes 99¢ $76 28h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 22¢ $20 30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 17¢ $20 30h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $143 31h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $21 31h
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 38h
Will Brazil vs. Morocco end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $20 38h
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $159 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $236.50 · official $236.50 (match) · 40 history records