Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T11:00:26+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

C9
0xc96e…e778
other · 40 markets active 1h ago
1.0score
+$4 +1%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$5 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Net worth$0
Realized+$5
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses24 / 16
Open positions0
Markets (closed)40 / 40
History coverage448d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit58%
Chart Positions 0 History 40 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$1
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $83 +$1 +1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $6 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $43 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $6 $0 -8%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 09 $38 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $7 $0 +4%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $37 $0 -0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 22 $1 $0 -13%
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec Dec 17 $8 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Dec 14 $2 $0 +2%
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? Jun 26 $8 $0 +2%
Will Nikita Kucherov win the Hart Trophy? Jun 14 $4 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? May 21 $3 −$1 -33%
Will San Marino finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 20 $7 +$1 +8%
Will the Socialist Party win the most seats in the 2025 Portuguese leg May 17 $6 $0 +2%
Will Pedri win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? May 15 $7 $0 +1%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? May 13 $17 $0 +0%
Will Sweden finish in the 2025 Eurovision top 10? May 12 $9 $0 +0%
Will Czechia win Eurovision 2025? May 11 $9 $0 +0%
Will Frank McCourt buy TikTok? May 10 $10 $0 +0%
Will Lee Jae-myung win 2nd place in the South Korean presidential elec May 10 $1 $0 -8%
Italian small businesses – dismissals and related compensation referen May 09 $9 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75k in May? May 09 $1 +$1 +100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70k in May? May 08 $7 $0 +0%
Will Albania win Eurovision 2025? May 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Jerome Powell say "tariff" 5 or more times during the May meeting May 07 $1 $0 -9%
Will Lakas win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2 May 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on May 31? May 06 $2 $0 +14%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? May 06 $10 $0 +0%
Will the next Government of Canada be a Liberal majority? May 06 $10 $0 +1%
Will federal spending decrease by $750b-1t between Q4 2024 and Q2 2025 May 05 $10 $0 +0%
Will Pierre Poilievre be the next Canadian Prime Minister? May 05 $8 +$2 +27%
Will Mark Carney lose his seat? Apr 30 $0 $0 -100%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Apr 25 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Apr 24 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Conservative Party win the Canadian election by over 12%? Apr 23 $7 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon 1,500 or more Jan 6 protestors in his first 100 days Apr 21 $1 −$1 -36%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2025 World Series? Apr 19 $8 $0 -0%
Will Atalanta win the Serie A? Mar 24 $11 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
world 57% +$1
other 26% +$1
politics 9% +$2
crypto 4% $0
tech 2% $0
sports 2% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 18¢ $4 1h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 18¢ $4 2h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $2 11h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 12h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $43 13h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $43 14h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $36 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 64¢ $3 26h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 63¢ $38 28h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $30 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 78¢ $12 31h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 76¢ $41 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 48¢ $6 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 52¢ $6 42h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 11¢ $5 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? SELL Yes 68¢ $38 4d
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? BUY Yes 68¢ $38 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL Yes 23¢ $8 4d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY Yes 22¢ $7 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 53¢ $38 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $38 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $37 5d
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? BUY No 98¢ $37 5d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? SELL No 87¢ $1 173d
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on Dec SELL No 99¢ $2 179d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? SELL No 98¢ $8 352d
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? BUY No 99¢ $1 374d
Will Bitcoin reach $125k in May? SELL Yes $2 388d
Will Kylian Mbappe win the 2025 Ballon d'Or? BUY No 96¢ $8 390d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤30d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 8 -0.1% -9.6% 50% 0% -9.0%
all 40 -1.0% -10.4% 60% 8% -8.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 8% -8.6%
10% -19.0% 5% -17.4%
15% -26.8% 2% -25.4%
20% -34.0% 2% -32.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 124 history records