Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T22:21:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5

score

C9 0xc96c…b540 other 10 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d

RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample

✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge

Total PnL +$108 (+10%) realized +$104 · open +$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt +46% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt +32% what you keep after slip

Net edge+32%after slip

Net WR100%break-even

Win rate100%7W / 0L

Drawdown0%max

Avg bet$108per market

Trades / day2.4pace

Kalshi-fit10%portable

Net worth$623now

Equity curve

realized PnL

Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +100%

net ROI/market (all)+31.9%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	7	+45.8%	+31.9%	100%	100%	+14.6%
≤30d	7	+45.8%	+31.9%	100%	100%	+14.6%
≤90d	7	+45.8%	+31.9%	100%	100%	+14.6%
all	7	+45.8%	+31.9%	100%	100%	+14.6%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover2.4 tr/day

realistic slip~5%

edge survives to15%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	+31.9%	100%	+14.6%
10%	+19.3%	57%	+3.6%
15%	+7.8%	43%	-6.4%
20%	-2.8%	29%	-15.6%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 21% · top 2 42% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI +27% too few recent

Fragile wins

0% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt +46% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR —% no data

Persistence

early —% → late —% no data

Add-ons / DCA

1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$17 vs — no data

Profit factor

— no data

Copy size

≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage

Net worth$623

Realized+$104

Unrealized+$4

Win rate (resolved)100%

Wins / losses7 / 0

Open positions3

Markets (closed)7 / 10

History coverage4d

Avg bet$108

Trades / day2.4

Drawdown0%

Kalshi-fit10%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 3 History 7 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?	No	82¢	82¢	$428	$433	+$5 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	83¢	82¢	$181	$180	−$1 (-1%)
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	Yes	58¢	60¢	$10	$10	+$0 (+4%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	Jun 26	$10	+$6	+62%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	Jun 26	$182	+$20	+11%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$60	+$20	+32%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	Jun 25	$85	+$17	+20%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 24	$51	+$25	+50%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	Jun 23	$50	+$9	+17%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	Jun 23	$20	+$26	+129%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will South Korea advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World	BUY No	82¢	$431	1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	83¢	$182	6h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	58¢	$10	6h
Will France win on 2026-06-26?	BUY Yes	61¢	$10	6h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-25?	BUY Yes	90¢	$182	30h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	83¢	$85	2d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24?	BUY Yes	75¢	$60	2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	85¢	$50	3d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23?	BUY Yes	66¢	$51	3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22?	BUY Yes	43¢	$20	4d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $623.25 · official $623.25 (match) · 18 history records